Schaeffer Brigitte, Mondet Bernard, Touzeau Suzanne
INRA, UR341 Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées, F-78350 Jouy-en-Josas Cedex, France.
Infect Genet Evol. 2008 Jul;8(4):422-32. doi: 10.1016/j.meegid.2007.07.002. Epub 2007 Jul 10.
Mosquitoes, acting as vectors, are involved in the transmission of viruses. Thus, their abundances, which strongly depend on the weather and environment, are closely linked to major disease outbreaks. The aim of this paper is to provide a tool to predict vector abundance. In order to describe the dynamics of mosquito populations, we developed a matrix model integrating climate fluctuations. The population is structured in five stages: two egg stages (immature and mature), one larval stage and two female flying stages (nulliparous and parous). The water availability in breeding sites was considered as the main environmental factor affecting the mosquito life-cycle. Thus, the model represents the evolution of the mosquito abundance in each stage over time, in connection with water availability. The model was used to simulate the abundance trends over 3 years of two mosquito species, Aedes africanus (Theobald) and Aedes furcifer (Edwards), vectors of the yellow fever virus in Ivory Coast. As both these species breed in tree holes, the water dynamics in the tree hole was reproduced from daily rainfall data. The results we obtained showed a good match between the simulated populations and the field data over the time period considered.
蚊子作为病媒，参与病毒的传播。因此，它们的数量在很大程度上取决于天气和环境，与重大疾病的爆发密切相关。本文旨在提供一种预测病媒数量的工具。为了描述蚊子种群的动态，我们开发了一个整合气候波动的矩阵模型。种群分为五个阶段：两个卵阶段（未成熟和成熟）、一个幼虫阶段和两个雌蚊飞行阶段（未产卵和已产卵）。繁殖地的水供应被视为影响蚊子生命周期的主要环境因素。因此，该模型表示了每个阶段蚊子数量随时间的演变，并与水供应相关。该模型用于模拟科特迪瓦两种蚊子——非洲伊蚊（Theobald）和叉尾伊蚊（Edwards）（黄热病病毒的病媒）三年间的数量趋势。由于这两种蚊子都在树洞繁殖，根据每日降雨数据再现了树洞中的水动态。我们得到的结果表明，在所考虑的时间段内，模拟种群与实地数据匹配良好。
