Xu Ying, Liu Liping, You Na, Pan Hungyu, Yip Paul
LMAM, School of Mathematical Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
Biometrics. 2007 Sep;63(3):917-21. doi: 10.1111/j.1541-0420.2007.00773.x. Epub 2007 Apr 2.
A continuous time frailty capture-recapture model is proposed for estimating population size of a closed population with the use of observed covariates to explain individuals' heterogeneity in presence of a random effect. A conditional likelihood approach is used to derive the estimate of parameters, and the Horvitz-Thompson estimator is adopted to estimate the unknown population size. Asymptotic normality of the estimates is obtained. Simulation results and a real example show that the proposed method works satisfactorily.
提出了一种连续时间脆弱捕获-再捕获模型，用于估计封闭种群的种群大小，该模型利用观测协变量来解释存在随机效应时个体的异质性。采用条件似然方法推导参数估计值，并采用霍维茨-汤普森估计量来估计未知的种群大小。得到了估计值的渐近正态性。模拟结果和一个实际例子表明，所提出的方法效果令人满意。
