You Na, Xuan Mao Chang
Department of Statistics, University of California, Riverside, California 92521, USA.
Biometrics. 2008 Jun;64(2):371-6. doi: 10.1111/j.1541-0420.2007.00901.x. Epub 2008 Mar 5.
Capture-recapture methods are widely adopted to estimate sizes of populations of public health interest using information from surveillance systems. For a two-list surveillance system with a discrete covariate, a population is divided into several subpopulations. A unified framework is proposed in which the logits of presence probabilities are decomposed into case effects and list effects. The estimators for the whole population and subpopulation sizes, their adjusted versions, and asymptotic standard errors admit closed-form expressions. Asymptotic and bootstrap individual and simultaneous confidence intervals are easily constructed. Conditional likelihood ratio tests are used to select one from three possible models. Real examples are investigated.
捕获再捕获方法被广泛用于利用监测系统的信息来估计具有公共卫生意义的人群规模。对于具有离散协变量的双列表监测系统，一个总体被划分为几个亚总体。提出了一个统一框架，其中存在概率的对数被分解为病例效应和列表效应。总体和亚总体规模的估计量、其调整版本以及渐近标准误差都有封闭形式的表达式。渐近和自助法个体及同时置信区间很容易构建。使用条件似然比检验从三个可能的模型中选择一个。对实际例子进行了研究。
