White M E, Schukken Y H, Tanksley B
Can Vet J. 1989 Dec;30(12):948-51.
We used two statistical techniques for space-time cluster analysis, the Knox and the Mantel regression methods, for an analysis of whether herd outbreaks of farmer-diagnosed winter dysentery during the winter of 1987-1988 were clustered in space and time more than would be expected by chance. Using the Knox method, there was significant space-time clustering of outbreaks of winter dysentery within a 30 day time and a 5.5 km radius. There was also significant space-time clustering by the Mantel regression method.Logistic regression was used to study risk factors for herd outbreaks of winter dysentery. Large herds (>60 cows) and herds with a history of an outbreak prior to 1987 had increased chances of an outbreak occurring in 1987-1988.These results are compatible with an infectious cause for winter dysentery.
我们使用了两种时空聚类分析的统计技术，即诺克斯（Knox）法和曼特尔（Mantel）回归法，来分析1987 - 1988年冬季农民诊断出的冬季痢疾群发疫情在时空上的聚集程度是否超过随机预期。使用诺克斯法，在30天时间和5.5公里半径范围内，冬季痢疾疫情存在显著的时空聚集。通过曼特尔回归法也发现了显著的时空聚集。采用逻辑回归研究冬季痢疾群发疫情的风险因素。大畜群（>60头奶牛）以及在1987年之前有过疫情爆发史的畜群，在1987 - 1988年爆发疫情的几率增加。这些结果与冬季痢疾的感染性病因相符。
