Guiserix Micheline, Bahi-Jaber Narges, Fouchet David, Sauvage Frank, Pontier Dominique
Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, CNRS, UMR 5558, Université de Lyon, Université Lyon 1, Villeurbanne, France.
J R Soc Interface. 2007 Dec 22;4(17):1127-34. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2007.0235.
In the year 1994, the Serengeti lion population was decimated by a canine distemper disease outbreak. Retrospective investigations showed that this host population had already been in contact with the pathogen in 1981 without any detected sign of disease. As an alternative to the virus mutation hypothesis to explain this difference in virulences observed in 1981 and 1994, we propose a novel mechanism of disease emergence based on variation in population immunity. We use a stochastic model to show that stochastic fluctuations in pathogen circulation, owing to a low probability of virus transmission from its reservoir to the target host and thereby resulting in variations in the global immunity level of the target host population, can explain the observations made in Serengeti. This mechanism may also be involved in other infectious disease emergences or re-emergences.
1994年，塞伦盖蒂狮群因犬瘟热疾病爆发而数量锐减。回顾性调查显示，该宿主种群在1981年就已接触过这种病原体，但当时并未检测到任何疾病迹象。作为解释1981年和1994年观察到的毒力差异的病毒突变假说的替代方案，我们提出了一种基于群体免疫力变化的疾病出现新机制。我们使用一个随机模型来表明，病原体传播存在随机波动，这是由于病毒从其储存宿主传播到目标宿主的概率较低，从而导致目标宿主种群的整体免疫水平发生变化，这可以解释在塞伦盖蒂观察到的现象。这种机制也可能与其他传染病的出现或再次出现有关。
