van der Voet Hilko, de Mul Anika, van Klaveren Jacob D
Biometris, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 100, NL-6700 AC Wageningen, Netherlands.
Food Chem Toxicol. 2007 Aug;45(8):1496-506. doi: 10.1016/j.fct.2007.02.009. Epub 2007 Feb 17.
A model is presented which allows to quantify the simultaneous distribution of the exposure to two compounds, for example a health-risk and a health promoting compound. The model considers the total dietary intake, and can be used as a first step to study the effects on the balance between risks and benefits following changes in the consumption pattern. The exposure is modelled separately for intake probabilities using a betabinomial model, and for intake amounts using a lognormal model, and these parts are afterwards integrated by Monte Carlo simulation. The model is illustrated using the risk-benefit case of dioxins and the omega-3 fatty acids eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA). High concentrations of both the health adverse compounds and the health promoting compounds are simultaneously present in fatty fish. Calculated exposures were compared with intake limits: the adequate intake for EPA+DHA and the tolerable daily intake (TDI) for dioxins. We estimate the probability that dioxin exposure is below TDI, the probability that EPA+DHA exposure is above the adequate intake, and the probability that both conditions occur simultaneously. We also model the dependence of these probabilities on age. In the studied population the exposure to both compounds is almost completely below the limits. A scenario study in which meat consumption was replaced by fatty fish consumption shows an increase in the fraction of the population with the recommended intake of EPA+DHA, however also the fraction of the population exceeding the TDI for dioxins is increased. For the example scenario the optimal amount of fatty fish consumption is derived.
本文提出了一个模型，该模型能够对两种化合物的暴露量同时分布情况进行量化，例如一种健康风险化合物和一种健康促进化合物。该模型考虑了总膳食摄入量，可作为研究消费模式变化后对风险与益处平衡影响的第一步。使用贝塔二项式模型对摄入概率的暴露量进行单独建模，使用对数正态模型对摄入量的暴露量进行单独建模，然后通过蒙特卡罗模拟将这些部分整合起来。使用二恶英与ω-3脂肪酸二十碳五烯酸（EPA）和二十二碳六烯酸（DHA）的风险效益案例对该模型进行了说明。高脂肪鱼类中同时存在高浓度的健康有害化合物和健康促进化合物。将计算出的暴露量与摄入限值进行比较：EPA+DHA的适宜摄入量和二恶英的每日可耐受摄入量（TDI）。我们估计二恶英暴露量低于TDI的概率、EPA+DHA暴露量高于适宜摄入量的概率以及两种情况同时发生的概率。我们还对这些概率与年龄的相关性进行了建模。在研究人群中，两种化合物的暴露量几乎完全低于限值。一项用高脂肪鱼类消费替代肉类消费的情景研究表明，摄入推荐量EPA+DHA的人群比例有所增加，然而，超过二恶英TDI的人群比例也有所增加。对于示例情景，得出了高脂肪鱼类的最佳消费量。
