Mazanov J, Byrne D G
School of Business, UNSW@ADFA, Canberra, ACT, Australia.
Br J Health Psychol. 2008 Sep;13(Pt 3):361-79. doi: 10.1348/135910707X202490. Epub 2007 Apr 13.
The current paper examined the variability of predictors of changes in adolescent smoking across linear and nonlinear analytic models.
Three analytic models typically used to model adolescent smoking behaviour were tested: one linear model of change (standard linear), one static linear model (pre-post linear) and one nonlinear model of change (cusp catastrophe). Variability in model composition was assessed by examining the pattern of variables achieving statistical significance and proportion of variance explained.
Model testing was conducted on data from Australian adolescents successfully tracked through a 12-month longitudinal study of smoking (N = 779). The survey measured demographics, self-reported smoking, smoking among friends and family, self-esteem, neuroticism, coping, stress and risk taking.
The results indicated that while predictors of change were invariant across analytic models explanatory power varied markedly. Models of change in smoking that included simple, interacted or polynomial forms of initial conditions (past behaviour) explained more than four times the variance of models without.
These results justified confidence in the predictors of change in adolescent smoking across analytic models. A secondary implication was that more research into past behaviour's role in the context of dynamical models of adolescent smoking and other health behaviour is needed.
本文研究了青少年吸烟变化预测因素在线性和非线性分析模型中的变异性。
测试了三种通常用于模拟青少年吸烟行为的分析模型：一种变化线性模型（标准线性模型）、一种静态线性模型（前后线性模型）和一种变化非线性模型（尖点突变模型）。通过检查达到统计显著性的变量模式和解释的方差比例来评估模型组成的变异性。
对通过一项为期12个月的吸烟纵向研究成功追踪的澳大利亚青少年数据进行模型测试（N = 779）。该调查测量了人口统计学特征、自我报告的吸烟情况、朋友和家人中的吸烟情况、自尊、神经质、应对方式、压力和冒险行为。
结果表明，虽然变化预测因素在分析模型中是不变的，但解释力差异显著。包含初始条件（过去行为）的简单、交互或多项式形式的吸烟变化模型解释的方差是不包含这些形式的模型的四倍多。
这些结果证明了对跨分析模型的青少年吸烟变化预测因素的信心。一个次要含义是，需要对过去行为在青少年吸烟和其他健康行为动态模型背景下的作用进行更多研究。
