Mazanov Jason, Byrne D G
School of Business, UNSW@ADFA, Northcott Drive, Canberra ACT 2600, Australia.
Nonlinear Dynamics Psychol Life Sci. 2006 Oct;10(4):445-70.
Behavioural intention was advanced as an alternative bifurcation variable to peer pressure in the context of a cusp catastrophe model of changes in adolescent substance use (Clair, 1998; Byrne, Mazanov & Gregson, 2001). Three sets of models were tested using data from a 12 month longitudinal study of adolescent smoking in Australia: the first with peer pressure only as the bifurcation term, the second with behavioural intention only and the third with both. In isolation both bifurcation variables performed similarly (adjusted-R2 and beta). In the third model, peer pressure edged out behavioural intention as an indicator of catastrophic change. Post hoc analysis revealed the polynomial and simple terms of initial conditions were more important than the bifurcation variable to explain change in smoking behaviour. This provoked a call for more work on finding an appropriately complex (non-straight line), theoretically justifiable mathematical model of adolescent substance use. Overall, behavioural intention was considered equivalent to peer pressure as a bifurcation variable although further research is needed to confirm this result.
在青少年物质使用变化的尖点突变模型背景下，行为意图被提出作为同伴压力的替代分叉变量（克莱尔，1998年；伯恩、马扎诺夫和格雷格森，2001年）。利用澳大利亚一项关于青少年吸烟的12个月纵向研究的数据，对三组模型进行了测试：第一组仅将同伴压力作为分叉项，第二组仅将行为意图作为分叉项，第三组则同时包含两者。单独来看，两个分叉变量的表现相似（调整后的R²和β）。在第三个模型中，同伴压力在作为灾难性变化指标方面略胜行为意图一筹。事后分析表明，初始条件的多项式和简单项比分叉变量更能解释吸烟行为的变化。这引发了呼吁，要开展更多工作来寻找一个适当复杂（非直线）、理论上合理的青少年物质使用数学模型。总体而言，行为意图作为分叉变量被认为与同伴压力相当，不过还需要进一步研究来证实这一结果。
