Alsos Inger Greve, Eidesen Pernille Bronken, Ehrich Dorothee, Skrede Inger, Westergaard Kristine, Jacobsen Gro Hilde, Landvik Jon Y, Taberlet Pierre, Brochmann Christian
National Centre for Biosystematics, Natural History Museum, University of Oslo, Post Office Box 1172 Blindern, NO-0318 Oslo, Norway.
Science. 2007 Jun 15;316(5831):1606-9. doi: 10.1126/science.1139178.
The ability of species to track their ecological niche after climate change is a major source of uncertainty in predicting their future distribution. By analyzing DNA fingerprinting (amplified fragment-length polymorphism) of nine plant species, we show that long-distance colonization of a remote arctic archipelago, Svalbard, has occurred repeatedly and from several source regions. Propagules are likely carried by wind and drifting sea ice. The genetic effect of restricted colonization was strongly correlated with the temperature requirements of the species, indicating that establishment limits distribution more than dispersal. Thus, it may be appropriate to assume unlimited dispersal when predicting long-term range shifts in the Arctic.
物种在气候变化后追踪其生态位的能力是预测其未来分布不确定性的一个主要来源。通过分析9种植物的DNA指纹图谱（扩增片段长度多态性），我们发现一个偏远北极群岛——斯瓦尔巴群岛曾多次发生来自多个源区的远距离定殖。繁殖体可能是由风和漂流海冰携带的。有限定殖的遗传效应与物种的温度需求密切相关，这表明定殖限制分布的程度超过扩散。因此，在预测北极地区的长期范围变化时，假设扩散不受限制可能是合适的。
