Salah Afif Ben, Kamarianakis Yiannis, Chlif Sadok, Alaya Nissaf Ben, Prastacos Poulicos
Laboratory of Epidemiology and Ecology of Parasitic Diseases, Institut Pasteur de Tunis, Tunis-Belvedere, Tunisia.
Int J Epidemiol. 2007 Oct;36(5):991-1000. doi: 10.1093/ije/dym125. Epub 2007 Jun 25.
BACKGROUND: Zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) is endemic in many rural areas of the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean region where different transmission patterns of the disease have been described. This study was carried out in a region located in Central Tunisia and aimed to investigate the spatio-temporal dynamics of the disease from 1999 to 2004. METHODS: Incident ZCL cases were defined by clinical diagnosis, confirmed by a positive skin test and/or parasitological examination. Annual ZCL rates were calculated for 94 regional sectors that comprise the study region of Sidi-Bouzid. Spatial and temporal homogeneity were initially investigated by chi-squared tests. Next, spatial scan statistics were used to identify spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal clusters that display abnormally high incidence rates. A hierarchical Bayesian Poisson regression model with spatial effects was fitted to signify explanatory socio-geographic factors related to spatial rate variability. Temporal ZCL dynamics for the 94 sectors were described via a linear mixed model. RESULTS: A total of 15 897 ZCL cases were reported in the 6-year study period, with an annual incidence rate of 669.7/100 000. An outbreak of the disease was detected in 2004 (1114/100 000). Spatial clustering is evident for the whole time period. The most likely cluster according to the spatial scan statistic, contains seven sectors with abnormally high incidence rates and approximately 5% of the total population. ZCL rates per sector are mostly related to the urban/rural index; sectoral population density and the number of inhabitants per household do not appear to contribute much to the explanation of rate variability. The dynamics of the disease within the study period are satisfactorily described by quadratic curves that differ for urban and rural areas. CONCLUSIONS: ZCL rates vary across space and time; rural/urban areas and environmental factors may explain part of this variation. In the study region, the Sidi Saâd dam-constructed in the early eighties and identified by previous studies as a major reason for the first outbreak of the disease-seems to be still related to increased ZCL rates. The most likely spatial cluster of high incidence rates contains regions located close to the dam. Our findings of increased incidences in urban areas support the hypothesis of increased incidences in peri-urban environments due to changes in sandfly/rodent living habits over recent years.
背景:人兽共患皮肤利什曼病(ZCL)在地中海地区南部和东部的许多农村地区流行,该疾病存在不同的传播模式。本研究在突尼斯中部的一个地区开展,旨在调查1999年至2004年该疾病的时空动态。 方法:通过临床诊断定义ZCL确诊病例,并经阳性皮肤试验和/或寄生虫学检查确诊。计算了构成西迪布济德研究区域的94个地区部门的年度ZCL发病率。最初通过卡方检验调查空间和时间的同质性。接下来,使用空间扫描统计来识别发病率异常高的空间、时间和时空聚集区。拟合了具有空间效应的分层贝叶斯泊松回归模型,以表明与空间发病率变异性相关的解释性社会地理因素。通过线性混合模型描述了94个部门的ZCL时间动态。 结果:在为期6年的研究期内,共报告了15897例ZCL病例,年发病率为669.7/10万。2004年检测到该病爆发(1114/10万)。在整个时间段内空间聚集明显。根据空间扫描统计,最可能的聚集区包含7个发病率异常高的部门,约占总人口的5%。每个部门的ZCL发病率主要与城乡指数相关;部门人口密度和每户居民数量似乎对发病率变异性的解释贡献不大。研究期内疾病的动态通过城乡不同的二次曲线得到了满意的描述。 结论:ZCL发病率随空间和时间变化;城乡地区和环境因素可能解释了这种变化的部分原因。在研究区域,建于80年代初且先前研究确定为该病首次爆发主要原因的西迪萨阿德大坝,似乎仍与ZCL发病率增加有关。发病率最高的最可能空间聚集区包含靠近大坝的区域。我们在城市地区发病率增加的研究结果支持了由于近年来白蛉/啮齿动物生活习性变化导致城郊环境发病率增加的假设。
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