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委内瑞拉一农村自治市的美国皮肤利什曼病时空聚集性

Spatio-temporal clustering of American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in a rural municipality of Venezuela.

机构信息

Coordinación de Investigación, Centro de Investigación en Salud Pública Jacinto Convit, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Central de Venezuela, Venezuela.

出版信息

Epidemics. 2013 Mar;5(1):11-9. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2012.10.002. Epub 2012 Nov 2.


DOI:10.1016/j.epidem.2012.10.002
PMID:23438427
Abstract

BACKGROUND: American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (ACL) is an endemic disease in most Latin-American countries and a public health problem. The number of new cases in the world is thought to be about 1.5 million each year. A new epidemiologic pattern has been observed in the last years, in this sense, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) combined with methods of spatial analysis provide powerful new tools for understanding it. STUDY OBJECTIVE: To investigate the spatial and temporal features of American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis, in an area known to be endemic. METHODS: We retrospectively conducted a space-time cluster analysis of incident cases of ACL using cross sectional data recorded from 1348 confirmed cases from 1992 to 2007 in a rural municipality in Venezuela, to test whether the cases were distributed randomly over space and time. We used the space-time permutation scan statistic and GIS. The identified clusters were analyzed for age, sex and job. These allowed us to investigate transmission patterns of ACL without an explicit entomological study. RESULTS: The analysis showed statistically significant space-time clusters of ACL (p-value<0.01). The most likely cluster contained 35.47% of the total cases (n=177) from 1995 to 1998. Four secondary clusters were identified for different periods. There was an indication of ACL cluster spread from the northeast to other points of the municipality. Three transmission patterns (domiciliary, peri-domiciliary and sylvatic environments) were identified along the study area. CONCLUSION: The transmission of ACL has a spatial and temporal pattern in the studied area which is related to a complex cycle where the environment and other factors have a significant influence.

摘要

背景:美洲利什曼病(ACL)是拉丁美洲大多数国家的地方病,也是一个公共卫生问题。据估计,全球每年新发病例约为 150 万例。近年来,人们观察到一种新的流行病学模式,在这种模式下,地理信息系统(GIS)与空间分析方法相结合,为理解这一模式提供了强大的新工具。 研究目的:调查已知流行地区美洲利什曼病的时空特征。 方法:我们对委内瑞拉一个农村市 1992 年至 2007 年期间记录的 1348 例确诊病例的 ACL 进行了回顾性时空聚类分析,以检验病例在空间和时间上是否随机分布。我们使用时空置换扫描统计和 GIS。对确定的聚类进行了年龄、性别和职业分析。这些分析使我们能够在没有明确的昆虫学研究的情况下调查 ACL 的传播模式。 结果:分析显示 ACL 存在具有统计学意义的时空聚类(p 值<0.01)。最有可能的聚类包含了 1995 年至 1998 年期间总病例数的 35.47%(n=177)。还确定了四个不同时期的次要聚类。有迹象表明 ACL 集群从东北向市的其他点扩散。在研究区域沿线确定了三种传播模式(家庭、家庭周围和森林环境)。 结论:在所研究的地区,ACL 的传播具有时空模式,这种模式与一个复杂的循环有关,环境和其他因素在这个循环中具有重要影响。

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