Henriksen Hans Jørgen, Barlebo Heidi Christiansen
Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), Øster Voldgade 10, DK-1350 Copenhagen K, Denmark.
J Environ Manage. 2008 Sep;88(4):1025-36. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2007.05.009. Epub 2007 Jun 29.
A broad range of tools are available for integrated water resource management (IWRM). In the EU research project NeWater, a hypothesis exists that IWRM cannot be realised unless current management regimes undergo a transition toward adaptive management (AM). This includes a structured process of learning, dealing with complexity, uncertainty etc. We assume that it is no longer enough for managers and tool researchers to understand the complexity and uncertainty of the outer natural system-the environment. It is just as important, to understand what goes on in the complex and uncertain participatory processes between the water managers, different stakeholders, authorities and researchers when a specific tool and process is used for environmental management. The paper revisits a case study carried out 2001-2004 where the tool Bayesian networks (BNs) was tested for groundwater management with full stakeholder involvement. With the participation of two researchers (the authors) and two water managers previously involved in the case study, a qualitative interview was prepared and carried out in June 2006. The aim of this ex-post evaluation was to capture and explore the water managers' experience with Bayesian belief networks when used for integrated and adaptive water management and provide a narrative approach for tool enhancement.
有一系列广泛的工具可用于水资源综合管理（IWRM）。在欧盟的“新水”研究项目中，存在一种假设，即除非当前的管理制度向适应性管理（AM）转变，否则水资源综合管理就无法实现。这包括一个结构化的学习过程，应对复杂性、不确定性等。我们认为，对于管理者和工具研究人员来说，仅了解外部自然系统——环境的复杂性和不确定性是不够的。同样重要的是，当使用特定工具和流程进行环境管理时，要了解在水资源管理者、不同利益相关者、当局和研究人员之间复杂且不确定的参与过程中发生了什么。本文回顾了一个在2001年至2004年期间开展的案例研究，在该研究中，贝叶斯网络（BNs）工具在利益相关者充分参与的情况下用于地下水管理测试。在两名研究人员（作者）和两名之前参与过该案例研究的水资源管理者的参与下，于2006年6月准备并进行了一次定性访谈。这次事后评估的目的是获取并探究水资源管理者在将贝叶斯信念网络用于综合和适应性水资源管理时的经验，并为工具改进提供一种叙述方法。
