Talbot Laura A, Morrell Christopher H, Fleg Jerome L, Metter E Jeffrey
Graduate School of Nursing, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, 4301 Jones Bridge Road, Bethesda, MD 20814-4799, USA.
Prev Med. 2007 Aug-Sep;45(2-3):169-76. doi: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2007.05.014. Epub 2007 Jun 2.
Higher levels of leisure time physical activity (LTPA) are associated with reduced mortality. However it is unclear how changes in LTPA over time impact all-cause mortality in men and women.
From 1958 to 1996 for men (n=1316) and 1978 to 1996 for women (n=776), participants aged 19-90+ years from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging (Baltimore, MD) were assessed for LTPA at baseline and at approximately 2-year intervals over a mean follow-up of 21.2+/-9.4 years for men and 10.2+/-5.6 years for women. Death occurred in 538 men and 90 women. LTPA was derived from self-reports of time spent in 97 activities converted into MET-min per 24 h and was further grouped into high-, moderate- and low-intensity LTPA. The longitudinal data was analyzed using mixed effects models to determine the rate of change in LTPA at each assessment. Proportional hazard models were used to assess the associations between LTPA at baseline and rate of change in LTPA with all-cause mortality.
In younger (<70 years) men, those who reported increases or negligible declines in total and high-intensity LTPA had lower all-cause mortality compared to those with greater declines in LTPA. In older (>or=70 years) men, the association between rate of change in high-intensity LTPA and mortality was similar to that seen in younger men. For women, longitudinal analyses showed neither rates of change in total, high-, moderate- nor low-intensity LTPA were predictive of mortality.
In this health-conscious population, greater longitudinal declines in total and high-intensity LTPA are independent predictors of all-cause mortality in men.
较高水平的休闲时间体力活动（LTPA）与死亡率降低相关。然而，LTPA随时间的变化如何影响男性和女性的全因死亡率尚不清楚。
在1958年至1996年期间对男性（n = 1316）进行研究，1978年至1996年期间对女性（n = 776）进行研究，来自巴尔的摩纵向衰老研究（马里兰州巴尔的摩）的19 - 90岁以上的参与者在基线时以及在平均随访21.2±9.4年（男性）和10.2±5.6年（女性）期间每隔约2年评估一次LTPA。538名男性和90名女性死亡。LTPA来自于对参与97项活动所花费时间的自我报告，转换为每24小时的代谢当量分钟数，并进一步分为高强度、中等强度和低强度LTPA。使用混合效应模型分析纵向数据，以确定每次评估时LTPA的变化率。使用比例风险模型评估基线时的LTPA以及LTPA的变化率与全因死亡率之间是否存在关联。
在较年轻（<70岁）的男性中，与LTPA下降幅度较大的男性相比，报告总LTPA和高强度LTPA增加或下降可忽略不计的男性全因死亡率较低。在较年长（≥70岁）的男性中，高强度LTPA变化率与死亡率之间的关联与较年轻男性相似。对于女性，纵向分析表明，总LTPA、高强度、中等强度和低强度LTPA的变化率均不能预测死亡率。
在这个注重健康的人群中，总LTPA和高强度LTPA随时间的大幅下降是男性全因死亡率的独立预测因素。
