Trichiasis and geoclimatic factors in Mali.

Several trachoma surveys conducted in sub-Saharan countries showed different geographical distributions of active trachoma and trichiasis. Trichiasis is more common in southern regions. We analysed the role of geoclimatic factors in determining the distributions of active trachoma and trichiasis in Mali. In each region a random sample of 30 clusters was examined. The prevalence of active trachoma among children and of trichiasis among women was compared, and geographical, environmental and social risk factors were assessed. Logistic regression models were constructed. Multiple regression analysis was applied and models were used to map the probability of active trachoma and trichiasis. The highest prevalence rates of active trachoma (TF/TI) were found in the northern part of Mali reaching 41.1% among children living north of the 15th parallel. Surprisingly, prevalence rates of trichiasis (TT) among women regularly increased from north to south (1.0% north of the 15th parallel vs. 2.8% south; OR=2.91, 95% CI 2.01-4.24). The two related predictive maps showed a gradient SSE/NNW for TF/TI very different from the gradient NS/SW for TT. These opposite spatial distributions could be explained by differences in the pathogenic agent, the natural history of the disease, population susceptibility, grading process or vulnerable group behaviour.