英格兰和威尔士每日自杀人数与气温之间的关系。
Relationship between daily suicide counts and temperature in England and Wales.
作者信息
Page Lisa A, Hajat Shakoor, Kovats R Sari
机构信息
Department of Psychological Medicine, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London SE5 8RJ, UK.
出版信息
Br J Psychiatry. 2007 Aug;191:106-12. doi: 10.1192/bjp.bp.106.031948.
BACKGROUND
Seasonal fluctuation in suicide has been observed in many populations. High temperature may contribute to this, but the effect of short-term fluctuations in temperature on suicide rates has not been studied.
AIMS
To assess the relationship between daily temperature and daily suicide counts in England and Wales between 1 January 1993 and 31 December 2003 and to establish whether heatwaves are associated with increased mortality from suicide.
METHOD
Time-series regression analysis was used to explore and quantify the relationship between daily suicide counts and daily temperature. The impact of two heatwaves on suicide was estimated.
RESULTS
No spring or summer peak in suicide was found. Above 18 degrees C, each 1 degrees C increase in mean temperature was associated with a 3.8 and 5.0% rise in suicide and violent suicide respectively. Suicide increased by 46.9% during the 1995 heatwave, whereas no change was seen during the 2003 heat wave.
CONCLUSIONS
There is increased risk of suicide during hot weather.
背景
许多人群中都观察到自杀存在季节性波动。高温可能是其原因之一，但温度短期波动对自杀率的影响尚未得到研究。
目的
评估1993年1月1日至2003年12月31日期间英格兰和威尔士每日气温与每日自杀人数之间的关系，并确定热浪是否与自杀死亡率上升有关。
方法
采用时间序列回归分析来探索和量化每日自杀人数与每日气温之间的关系。估计了两次热浪对自杀的影响。
结果
未发现自杀存在春季或夏季高峰。在18摄氏度以上，平均温度每升高1摄氏度，自杀和暴力自杀分别增加3.8%和5.0%。1995年热浪期间自杀增加了46.9%，而2003年热浪期间未观察到变化。
结论
炎热天气下自杀风险增加。
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