Johnson H, Kovats R S, McGregor G, Stedman J, Gibbs M, Walton H
Office for National Statistics, London, United Kingdom.
Euro Surveill. 2005 Jul;10(7):168-71.
This paper describes a retrospective analysis of the impact of the 2003 heat wave on mortality in England and Wales, and compares this with rapid estimates based on the Office for National Statistics routine weekly deaths reporting system. Daily mortality data for 4 to 13 August 2003, when temperatures were much hotter than normally seen in England, were compared with averages for the same period in years 1998 to 2002. The August 2003 heat wave was associated with a large short-term increase in mortality, particularly in London. Ozone and particulate matter concentrations were also elevated during the heat wave. Overall, there were 2139 (16%) excess deaths in England and Wales. Worst affected were people over the age of 75 years. The impact was greatest in the London region where deaths in those over the age of 75 increased by 59%. Estimated excess mortality was greater than for other recent heat waves in the United Kingdom. The estimated number of deaths registered each week is reported by the Office for National Statistics. The first clear indication of a substantial increase in deaths was published on 21 August 2003. This provided a quick first estimate of the number of deaths attributable to the heat wave and reflected the pattern of daily deaths in relation to the hottest days, but underestimated the excess when compared with the later analysis.
本文描述了对2003年热浪对英格兰和威尔士死亡率影响的回顾性分析，并将其与基于英国国家统计局每周常规死亡报告系统的快速估计进行比较。将2003年8月4日至13日气温远高于英格兰正常水平时的每日死亡率数据与1998年至2002年同期的平均值进行了比较。2003年8月的热浪与死亡率的大幅短期上升有关，尤其是在伦敦。热浪期间臭氧和颗粒物浓度也有所升高。总体而言，英格兰和威尔士有2139例（16%）超额死亡。受影响最严重的是75岁以上的人群。影响在伦敦地区最为显著，75岁以上人群的死亡人数增加了59%。估计的超额死亡率高于英国近期的其他热浪。英国国家统计局报告了每周登记的死亡估计数。死亡人数大幅增加的首个明确迹象于2003年8月21日公布。这提供了热浪导致的死亡人数的快速初步估计，并反映了与最热日子相关的每日死亡模式，但与后期分析相比低估了超额死亡人数。
