Poterba James, Venti Steven, Wise David A
Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2007 Aug 14;104(33):13238-43. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0611596104. Epub 2007 Aug 8.
The rise of 401(k) plans and the decline of defined benefit plans will have an important effect on the wealth of future retirees. Changing demographic structure also will affect the aggregate stock of retirement wealth. We project the stock of assets held in retirement plans and the average retirement saving of retirees through 2040. Our projections show large increases in wealth at retirement, especially if the returns on corporate equities are comparable with historical returns. Retirement wealth will grow, however, even if equity returns fall substantially below their historical level.
401(k) 计划的兴起以及固定收益计划的衰落将对未来退休人员的财富产生重要影响。人口结构的变化也将影响退休财富的总量。我们预测了到2040年退休计划中持有的资产存量以及退休人员的平均退休储蓄。我们的预测显示，退休时的财富将大幅增加，尤其是如果公司股票的回报率与历史回报率相当的话。然而，即使股票回报率大幅低于历史水平，退休财富仍将增长。
