中国生育率和初婚率的最新趋势。

Science. 1991 Jan 25;251(4992):389-93. doi: 10.1126/science.251.4992.389.

The State Family Planning Commission of China has conducted two large-scale fertility surveys, in 1982 and 1988, covering sample households containing 1 million and 2 million persons, respectively. These surveys obtained lifetime histories, including age at first marriage and at each birth for female members of the households from ages 15 to 67 in the first survey and from 15 to 57 in the second. The data provide detailed information on the extraordinary decline in the rate of childbearing in China (by 60% from 1970 to 1980). Because rising age at marriage played a significant role in this decline, the effect of changes in the pattern of entry into marriage on childbearing since 1980 was examined. There was a sharp increase in overall fertility (the total fertility rate) from 1980 to 1982; after falling to slightly below the 1980 level in 1985, the rate rose in 1985 and 1986 to well above that of 1980. A major factor in this arrested and partially reversed decline was a boom in marriage that followed a relaxation in 1980 of locally administered restrictions on marriage before the officially designated desirable age. In fact, the total fertility rate of married women (summed over duration of marriage rather than age) averaged much lower in the mid-1980s than in 1980. The summary rate of bearing second children increased markedly in the 1980s when calculated by age of women, but declined when calculated by duration of marriage, given the inflated number of recently married women.

中国国家计划生育委员会进行了两次大规模的生育调查，分别在 1982 年和 1988 年，样本家庭分别包含 100 万和 200 万人。这些调查获得了家庭中女性成员从 15 岁到 67 岁（第一次调查）和 15 岁到 57 岁（第二次调查）的生育史，包括初婚年龄和每次生育的年龄。这些数据提供了中国生育率急剧下降的详细信息（1970 年至 1980 年下降了 60%）。由于初婚年龄的上升在这种下降中起了重要作用，因此研究了自 1980 年以来进入婚姻模式的变化对生育的影响。总生育率（总和生育率）从 1980 年到 1982 年急剧上升；1985 年略低于 1980 年的水平后，该比率在 1985 年和 1986 年上升到高于 1980 年的水平。导致这种生育下降被遏制和部分逆转的一个主要因素是，1980 年放宽了地方对法定适婚年龄前婚姻的限制，随后出现了一场婚姻热潮。事实上，在 1980 年代中期，已婚妇女的总生育率（按婚姻持续时间而不是年龄计算）平均比 1980 年低得多。按女性年龄计算，二胎生育总和生育率在 20 世纪 80 年代显著上升，但考虑到最近结婚的女性人数增加，按婚姻持续时间计算，这一数字有所下降。