Atkinson R C
Science. 1990 Apr 27;248(4954):425-32. doi: 10.1126/science.248.4954.425.
Projections are analyzed for the future supply and demand of scientists and engineers. The demographics of the college-age population combined with estimates of the percentage of students who will pursue careers in science and engineering indicate significant shortfalls between supply and demand for the next several decades at both the baccalaureate and Ph.D. levels. If these projections are realized, the shortage of technical personnel will have a major impact on economic growth, international competitiveness, and national security. Various strategies for recruiting and retaining students in science and engineering are considered.
对科学家和工程师未来的供需情况进行了分析。大学适龄人口的人口统计数据，再加上对将从事科学和工程职业的学生比例的估计，表明在未来几十年里，学士和博士层面的供需之间都将存在显著缺口。如果这些预测得以实现，技术人员的短缺将对经济增长、国际竞争力和国家安全产生重大影响。文中还考虑了招募和留住理工科学生的各种策略。
