Chungue E, Boutin J P, Roux J
Institut territorial de Recherches Médicales Louis Malardé, Papeete Tahiti, French Polynesia.
Eur J Epidemiol. 1991 Nov;7(6):616-20. doi: 10.1007/BF00218671.
The excess number of weekly laboratory requests for confirmation of dengue diagnosis over the expected number of requests forecasted by the modified Serfling method is proposed for the surveillance of dengue in French Polynesia, in addition to conventional methods. Retrospective analysis of the seasonal curves of dengue activity related to the number of laboratory requests is described for the years 1982-1987 where dengue type 4 was the only active flavivirus at the time when the forecast was initiated. By using past epidemic data, the probability of failing to recognize an increase in excess of requests as possibly epidemic was of 13.2% and 5.8%, respectively, when the criterion for epidemic increase was set respectively at 2 and 3 successive weeks during which the epidemic threshold is exceeded. A weekly surveillance was set up prospectively for 1988 using these criteria.
除了传统方法外，建议使用每周实验室检测申请数量超过改良塞尔弗林方法预测的预期申请数量的多余数量，对法属波利尼西亚的登革热进行监测。本文描述了1982 - 1987年与实验室检测申请数量相关的登革热活动季节性曲线的回顾性分析，在开始预测时，4型登革热是当时唯一活跃的黄病毒。通过使用过去的疫情数据，当将疫情增加的标准分别设定为连续2周和3周超过疫情阈值时，未能将申请数量的超额增加识别为可能的疫情的概率分别为13.2%和5.8%。1988年使用这些标准前瞻性地建立了每周监测。
