Catalano Richard F, Kosterman Rick, Hawkins J David, Newcomb Michael D, Abbott Robert D
Social Development Research Group, School of Social Work, University of Washington, Seattle.
J Drug Issues. 1996;26(2):429-455. doi: 10.1177/002204269602600207.
The social development model is a general theory of human behavior that seeks to explain antisocial behaviors through specification of predictive developmental relationships. It incorporates the effects of empirical predictors ("risk factors" and "protective factors") for antisocial behavior and attempts to synthesize the most strongly supported propositions of control theory, social learning theory, and differential association theory. This article examines the power of social development model constructs measured at ages 9 to 10 and 13 to 14 to predict drug use at ages 17 to 18. The sample of 590 is from the longitudinal panel of the Seattle Social Development Project, which in 1985 sampled fifth grade students from high crime neighborhoods in Seattle, Washington. Structural equation modeling techniques were used to examine the fit of the model to the data. Although all but one path coefficient were significant and in the expected direction, the model did not fit the data as well as expected (CFI=.87). We next specified second-order factors for each path to capture the substantial common variance in the constructs' opportunities, involvement, and rewards. This model fit the data well (CFI=.90). We conclude that the social development model provides an acceptable fit to predict drug use at ages 17 to 18. Implications for the temporal nature of key constructs and for prevention are discussed.
社会发展模型是一种关于人类行为的一般理论，旨在通过明确预测性发展关系来解释反社会行为。它纳入了反社会行为的实证预测因素（“风险因素”和“保护因素”）的影响，并试图综合控制理论、社会学习理论和差别交往理论中最受支持的命题。本文考察了在9至10岁以及13至14岁时所测量的社会发展模型结构对17至18岁时吸毒行为的预测能力。590名样本来自西雅图社会发展项目的纵向研究小组，该小组于1985年从华盛顿州西雅图高犯罪率社区抽取了五年级学生。采用结构方程建模技术来检验模型与数据的拟合度。尽管除一个路径系数外所有系数均显著且方向符合预期，但模型与数据的拟合度并未达到预期（比较拟合指数CFI = 0.87）。接下来，我们为每条路径指定二阶因素，以捕捉结构中的机会、参与和奖励方面的大量共同方差。该模型与数据拟合良好（CFI = 0.90）。我们得出结论，社会发展模型为预测17至18岁时的吸毒行为提供了可接受的拟合度。文中还讨论了关键结构的时间性质及预防方面的意义。
