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一知半解是件危险的事:无知驱动推理的实验证明。

A little learning is a dangerous thing: an experimental demonstration of ignorance-driven inference.

作者信息

Frosch Caren A, Beaman C Philip, McCloy Rachel

机构信息

Department of Psychology, University of Reading, Reading, UK.

出版信息

Q J Exp Psychol (Hove). 2007 Oct;60(10):1329-36. doi: 10.1080/17470210701507949.

Abstract

Studies of ignorance-driven decision making have been employed to analyse when ignorance should prove advantageous on theoretical grounds or else they have been employed to examine whether human behaviour is consistent with an ignorance-driven inference strategy (e.g., the recognition heuristic). In the current study we examine whether - under conditions where such inferences might be expected - the advantages that theoretical analyses predict are evident in human performance data. A single experiment shows that, when asked to make relative wealth judgements, participants reliably use recognition as a basis for their judgements. Their wealth judgements under these conditions are reliably more accurate when some of the target names are unknown than when participants recognize all of the names (a "less-is-more effect"). These results are consistent across a number of variations: the number of options given to participants and the nature of the wealth judgement. A basic model of recognition-based inference predicts these effects.

摘要

关于无知驱动决策的研究已被用于从理论角度分析无知何时应被证明是有利的,或者已被用于检验人类行为是否与无知驱动的推理策略(例如,识别启发式)一致。在当前的研究中,我们考察在可能预期会出现此类推理的条件下,理论分析所预测的优势是否在人类表现数据中明显体现。一项单一实验表明,当被要求做出相对财富判断时,参与者可靠地将识别用作判断的基础。在这些条件下,当一些目标名称不被知晓时,他们的财富判断比当参与者识别所有名称时更可靠地准确(一种“少即是多效应”)。这些结果在多种变化中是一致的:给予参与者的选项数量以及财富判断的性质。基于识别的推理基本模型预测了这些效应。

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