Stige Leif Christian, Chan Kung-Sik, Zhang Zhibin, Frank David, Stenseth Nils C
Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biology, University of Oslo, PO Box 1066 Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2007 Oct 9;104(41):16188-93. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0706813104. Epub 2007 Sep 18.
For >1,000 years, Chinese officials have recorded the annual abundance of the oriental migratory locust Locusta migratoria manilensis, with the ultimate aim of predicting locust outbreaks. Linking these records with temperature and precipitation reconstructions for the period 957-1956, we show that decadal mean locust abundance is highest during cold and wet periods. These periods coincide with above-average frequencies of both floods and droughts in the lower Yangtze River, phenomena that are associated with locust outbreaks. Our results imply differential ecological responses to interdecadal and interannual climatic variability. Such frequency-dependent effects deserve increased attention in global warming studies.
一千多年来，中国官员一直记录着东亚飞蝗Locusta migratoria manilensis的年度数量，其最终目的是预测蝗灾爆发。将这些记录与957 - 1956年期间的温度和降水重建数据相结合，我们发现十年平均蝗虫数量在寒冷潮湿时期最高。这些时期与长江下游洪水和干旱的高于平均水平的频率相吻合，而这些现象与蝗灾爆发有关。我们的结果意味着对年代际和年际气候变化存在不同的生态响应。这种频率依赖性效应在全球变暖研究中值得更多关注。
