State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management on Pest Insects and Rodents, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, People's Republic of China.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2011 Aug 30;108(35):14521-6. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1100189108. Epub 2011 Aug 29.
It is becoming increasingly clear that global warming is taking place; however, its long-term effects on biological populations are largely unknown due to lack of long-term data. Here, we reconstructed a 1,910-y-long time series of outbreaks of Oriental migratory locusts (Locusta migratoria manilensis) in China, on the basis of information extracted from >8,000 historical documents. First by analyzing the most recent period with the best data quality using generalized additive models, we found statistically significant associations between the reconstructed locust abundance and indexes of precipitation and temperature at both annual (A.D. 1512-1911) and decadal (A.D. 1000-1900) scales: There were more locusts under dry and cold conditions and when locust abundance was high in the preceding year or decade. Second, by exploring locust-environment correlations using a 200-y moving window, we tested whether these associations also hold further back in time. The locust-precipitation correlation was found to hold at least as far back as to A.D. 500, supporting the robustness of this link as well as the quality of both reconstructions. The locust-temperature correlation was weaker and less consistent, which may reflect this link being indirect and thus more easily moderated by other factors. We anticipate that further analysis of this unique time series now available to the scientific community will continue to provide insights into biological consequences of climate change in the years to come.
现在越来越清楚的是，全球变暖正在发生；然而，由于缺乏长期数据，其对生物种群的长期影响在很大程度上仍是未知的。在这里，我们根据从 8000 多份历史文献中提取的信息，重建了中国东方行军蚁（Locusta migratoria manilensis）长达 1910 年的爆发时间序列。首先，我们通过使用广义加性模型分析最近一段时间（数据质量最好的时期），发现重建的蝗虫数量与降水和温度指标之间存在统计学上显著的关联，无论是在年度（公元 1512-1911 年）还是十年尺度（公元 1000-1900 年）上：在干旱和寒冷的条件下以及在前一年或前十年蝗虫数量较高的情况下，蝗虫较多。其次，通过使用 200 年移动窗口探索蝗虫-环境相关性，我们检验了这些关联是否在更早的时间也存在。发现蝗虫-降水相关性至少可以追溯到公元 500 年，这不仅支持了这种联系的稳健性，也支持了这两种重建的质量。蝗虫-温度相关性较弱且不太一致，这可能反映了这种联系是间接的，因此更容易受到其他因素的调节。我们预计，对这个现在科学界可以利用的独特时间序列的进一步分析，将继续为未来气候变化对生物的影响提供新的见解。
