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用于微生物风险评估的冷自来水消费量估算:研究综述与数据统计分析

Estimation of the consumption of cold tap water for microbiological risk assessment: an overview of studies and statistical analysis of data.

作者信息

Mons M N, van der Wielen J M L, Blokker E J M, Sinclair M I, Hulshof K F A M, Dangendorf F, Hunter P R, Medema G J

机构信息

Kiwa Water Research, PO Box 1072, 3430 BB, Nieuwegein, The Netherlands.

出版信息

J Water Health. 2007;5 Suppl 1:151-70. doi: 10.2166/wh.2007.141.

DOI:10.2166/wh.2007.141
PMID:17890843
Abstract

The volume of cold tap water consumed is an essential element in quantitative microbial risk assessment. This paper presents a review of tap water consumption studies. Study designs were evaluated and statistical distributions were fitted to water consumption data from The Netherlands, Great Britain, Germany and Australia. We conclude that the diary is to be preferred for collecting water consumption data. If a diary is not feasible, a 24 h recall would be the best alternative, preferably repeated at least once. From the studies evaluated, the mean daily consumption varies from 0.10 L to 1.55 L. No conclusions could be drawn regarding the effects of season, age and gender on tap water consumption. Physical activity, yearly income and perceived health status were reported to influence water consumption. Comparison of the different statistical probability distribution functions of the datasets demonstrated that the Poisson distribution performed better than the lognormal distribution as suggested by Roseberry and Burmaster. For quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) it is recommended to use country-specific consumption data and statistical distributions, if available. If no country specific data are available we recommend to use the Australian distribution data from the Melbourne diary study (Poisson, lambda=3.49 glasses/d) as a conservative estimate.

摘要

冷自来水的消费量是定量微生物风险评估中的一个重要因素。本文对自来水消费研究进行了综述。对研究设计进行了评估,并将统计分布拟合到来自荷兰、英国、德国和澳大利亚的用水量数据。我们得出结论,日记法是收集用水量数据的首选方法。如果日记法不可行,24小时回忆法将是最佳替代方法,最好至少重复一次。从评估的研究来看,每日平均消费量从0.10升至1.55升不等。关于季节、年龄和性别对自来水消费的影响,无法得出结论。据报道,身体活动、年收入和感知健康状况会影响用水量。对数据集不同统计概率分布函数的比较表明,泊松分布的表现优于罗斯伯里和伯马斯特所建议的对数正态分布。对于定量微生物风险评估(QMRA),建议使用特定国家的消费数据和统计分布(如果有)。如果没有特定国家的数据,我们建议使用墨尔本日记研究中的澳大利亚分布数据(泊松分布,λ=3.49杯/天)作为保守估计。

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