Grande Enrico, Inghelmann Riccardo, Francisci Silvia, Verdecchia Arduino, Micheli Andrea, Baili Paolo, Capocaccia Riccardo, De Angelis Roberta
Reparto di Epidemiologia dei Tumori, Centro Nazionale di Epidemiologia, Sorveglianza e Promozione della Salute, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome.
Tumori. 2007 Jul-Aug;93(4):345-51. doi: 10.1177/030089160709300404.
The aim of this paper is to present regional and national estimates of mortality, incidence and prevalence for all cancers in Italy over the period 1970-1999, with projections up to 2010.
The estimates were obtained by applying the MIAMOD method, a statistical back-calculation approach, to derive incidence and prevalence starting from mortality and relative survival data. Published data from the Italian Cancer Registries were modeled in order to estimate regional and national cancer survival.
Cancer time trends resulted more favorable in northern-central regions than in southern regions, both for men and women. Mortality started to decrease in the northern-central area approximately from the mid 1980s, whereas it was expected to slightly decline only after the year 2000 in the southern area. Incidence was estimated to decrease in men from 1995 in northern and central areas only; no incidence reduction is expected for women during the study period. Overall, 130,000 cancer deaths, 250,000 new cancer cases and 1,700,000 prevalent cancer cases are estimated in Italy in the year 2005.
This up-to-date picture of cancer risk and burden in the Italian regions shows as a relevant epidemiological change is ongoing in Italy. Although a clear geographical variability in mortality and morbidity levels still exists across the country, the historical North-to-South gap appears smaller than in the past. This change is particularly remarkable for men, as a consequence of trends that are favorable in northern-central regions but not yet in southern regions.
本文旨在呈现1970 - 1999年期间意大利所有癌症的区域和全国死亡率、发病率及患病率估计值，并预测至2010年。
通过应用MIAMOD方法（一种统计反向推算方法），从死亡率和相对生存数据推算发病率和患病率，从而获得这些估计值。对意大利癌症登记处发布的数据进行建模，以估计区域和全国癌症生存率。
无论男性还是女性，癌症时间趋势在意大利中北部地区比南部地区更为有利。中北部地区的死亡率大约从20世纪80年代中期开始下降，而南部地区预计直到2000年后才会略有下降。仅在北部和中部地区，估计男性发病率从1995年开始下降；在研究期间，预计女性发病率不会下降。总体而言，预计2005年意大利有13万例癌症死亡、25万例新癌症病例和170万例癌症现患病例。
意大利各地区癌症风险和负担的最新情况表明，意大利正在发生相关的流行病学变化。尽管全国死亡率和发病率水平仍存在明显的地理差异，但历史上的南北差距似乎比过去小。由于中北部地区趋势有利而南部地区尚未如此，这种变化在男性中尤为显著。
