Inghelmann Riccardo, Grande Enrico, Francisci Silvia, Verdecchia Arduino, Micheli Andrea, Baili Paolo, Capocaccia Riccardo, De Angelis Roberta
Reparto di Epidemiologia dei Tumori, Centro Nazionale di Epidemiologia, Sorveglianza e Promozione della Salute, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy.
Tumori. 2007 Jul-Aug;93(4):367-73. doi: 10.1177/030089160709300407.
Stomach cancer still remains one of the most frequent tumors in Italy and Europe. The aim of this paper is to present estimates for stomach cancer mortality, incidence and prevalence over the period 1970-2010 for the Italian regions and for Italy as a whole.
Estimated figures for incidence, prevalence and mortality were obtained by using the MIAMOD method. Starting from the knowledge of mortality in the period 1970-1999 and of relative survival in the period of diagnosis 1978-1994, we derived incidence and prevalence estimates and projections up to the year 2010 by means of a statistical back-calculation approach. Survival at the regional and national levels was modelled on the basis of published survival data from the Italian cancer registries.
Incidence and mortality trends for both sexes decrease by about 60% during the estimation period 1970-2010. Both indicators show a 2-fold male/female ratio all over the country, and a similar gender time trend. The incidence and mortality in the North and Center of the country are estimated to be higher and to decrease more steeply than those in the South, both for men and women. A total of around 13,000 incident cases, 57,000 prevalent cases, and 8,000 deaths are estimated to have occurred in Italy in 2005.
The incidence and mortality trends are estimated to decline during the entire period 1970-2010, with different slopes between northern-central and southern regions. The incidence and mortality are quite similar among Italian regions, showing that the risk of developing the disease diminishes and is becoming more homogeneous than in the past decades all over the country.
在意大利和欧洲，胃癌仍是最常见的肿瘤之一。本文旨在呈现1970 - 2010年期间意大利各地区及整个意大利胃癌死亡率、发病率和患病率的估计数据。
采用MIAMOD方法获取发病率、患病率和死亡率的估计数据。从1970 - 1999年期间的死亡率以及1978 - 1994年诊断期间的相对生存率出发，我们通过统计反向推算方法得出了截至2010年的发病率和患病率估计值及预测值。区域和国家层面的生存率是根据意大利癌症登记处公布的生存数据建立模型的。
在1970 - 2010年估计期间，男性和女性的发病率和死亡率趋势均下降约60%。这两个指标在全国范围内均显示出2倍的男女比例，且性别时间趋势相似。估计该国北部和中部地区男性和女性的发病率和死亡率均高于南部地区，且下降幅度更大。2005年意大利估计共发生约13,000例新发病例、57,000例现患病例和8,000例死亡病例。
估计在1970 - 2010年整个期间发病率和死亡率趋势呈下降态势，北部 - 中部和南部地区的下降斜率不同。意大利各地区的发病率和死亡率相当相似，表明患该疾病的风险在降低，且在全国范围内比过去几十年更加趋于一致。
