Grande Enrico, Inghelmann Riccardo, Francisci Silvia, Verdecchia Arduino, Micheli Andrea, Baili Paolo, Capocaccia Riccardo, De Angelis Roberta
Reparto di Epidemiologia dei Tumori, Centro Nazionale di Epidemiologia, Sorveglianza e Promozione della Salute, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy.
Tumori. 2007 Jul-Aug;93(4):352-9. doi: 10.1177/030089160709300405.
In terms of new diagnoses, colorectal cancer is one of the most important cancers in Italy and worldwide. The aim of this paper is to present estimates of the mortality, incidence and prevalence of colorectal cancer in Italy at a national and regional scale over the period 1970-1999, with projections up to 2010.
The estimates were obtained by applying the MIAMOD method, a statistical back-calculation approach to derive incidence and prevalence estimates from mortality and relative survival data. Published data from the Italian cancer registries were modelled to obtain regional and national estimates of colorectal cancer survival.
Different incidence patterns were observed for men and women, especially in the projection period: the national age-standardized rate is estimated to increase throughout the study period 1970-2010 for men from 30 to 70 per 100,000, and to stabilize from the end of the 1990s for women at around 38 per 100,000. A stabilization or a slight decrease in age-standardized incidence rates is expected in most regions for women and in most northern-central regions for men. The most critical situation is estimated among men for southern regions, where the rise in incidence is accompanied by a dramatic increase in mortality. About 46,000 incident cases, 267,000 prevalent cases, and 16,000 deaths from colorectal cancer are estimated in Italy for the year 2005.
Despite the risk reduction estimated in most northern-central regions among men and in the large majority of regions among women, the colorectal cancer burden in Italy is expected to remain relevant in the next years. Prospects for reducing this burden appear mainly connected to the adoption of prevention policies aimed at increasing the awareness of the risk related to dietary habits and lifestyles and at promoting colorectal cancer screening.
就新诊断病例而言，结直肠癌是意大利乃至全球最重要的癌症之一。本文旨在呈现1970 - 1999年期间意大利全国及各地区结直肠癌的死亡率、发病率和患病率估计值，并预测至2010年的情况。
这些估计值通过应用MIAMOD方法获得，该方法是一种从死亡率和相对生存数据推导发病率和患病率估计值的统计反向计算方法。对意大利癌症登记处公布的数据进行建模，以获得结直肠癌生存情况的地区和全国估计值。
男性和女性的发病率模式不同，尤其是在预测期内：全国年龄标准化发病率估计在整个1970 - 2010年研究期间，男性从每10万人30例增加到70例，而女性从20世纪90年代末开始稳定在每10万人约38例。预计大多数地区女性和大多数中北部地区男性的年龄标准化发病率将趋于稳定或略有下降。估计南部地区男性的情况最为严峻，发病率上升的同时死亡率急剧增加。2005年意大利估计约有46,000例新发病例、267,000例现患病例和16,000例结直肠癌死亡病例。
尽管在大多数中北部地区男性和绝大多数地区女性中估计风险有所降低，但预计未来几年意大利结直肠癌负担仍将较重。减轻这一负担的前景似乎主要与采取预防政策相关，这些政策旨在提高对饮食习惯和生活方式相关风险的认识，并促进结直肠癌筛查。
