Yabroff K Robin, Mariotto Angela B, Feuer Eric, Brown Martin L
Health Services and Economics Branch/Applied Research Program, Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, 6130 Executive Boulevard, Bethesda, MD 10892, USA.
Health Econ. 2008 Aug;17(8):947-59. doi: 10.1002/hec.1307.
Because of aging trends in the US, the number of prevalent colorectal cancer patients is expected to increase. We projected economic burden to the Medicare program and its beneficiaries through the year 2020. Burden was estimated for the initial phase of care, the period following diagnosis, the last year of life, and the continuing phase. Projected burden was evaluated with varying assumptions about incidence, survival, and costs of care. Estimated costs of care in 2000 in the initial, continuing, and last year of life phases of care were approximately $3.18 billion, $1.68 billion, and $2.63 billion, respectively. By the year 2020 under the 'fixed' current incidence, survival, and cost scenario, projected costs for the initial, continuing, and last year of life phases were $4.75 billion, $2.63 billion, and $4.05 billion. Under the current trends scenario (decreasing incidence, improving survival, and increasing costs), costs were $5.19 billion, $3.57 billion, and $5.27 billion. By the year 2020, estimated costs of colorectal cancer care among individuals aged 65 and older increased by 53% in the fixed scenario and by 89% in the current trends scenario. The future economic burden of colorectal cancer to the Medicare program and its beneficiaries in the US will be substantial.
由于美国的老龄化趋势，预计结直肠癌患者的数量将会增加。我们预测了到2020年医疗保险计划及其受益人的经济负担。对护理的初始阶段、诊断后的时期、生命的最后一年以及持续阶段的负担进行了估计。根据发病率、生存率和护理成本的不同假设对预测负担进行了评估。2000年护理初始阶段、持续阶段和生命最后一年的估计护理成本分别约为31.8亿美元、16.8亿美元和26.3亿美元。到2020年，在“固定”的当前发病率、生存率和成本情景下，护理初始阶段、持续阶段和生命最后一年的预测成本分别为47.5亿美元、26.3亿美元和40.5亿美元。在当前趋势情景下（发病率下降、生存率提高和成本增加），成本分别为51.9亿美元、35.7亿美元和52.7亿美元。到2020年，65岁及以上人群的结直肠癌护理估计成本在固定情景下增加了53%，在当前趋势情景下增加了89%。结直肠癌对美国医疗保险计划及其受益人的未来经济负担将是巨大的。
