Projections of the costs associated with colorectal cancer care in the United States, 2000-2020.

Because of aging trends in the US, the number of prevalent colorectal cancer patients is expected to increase. We projected economic burden to the Medicare program and its beneficiaries through the year 2020. Burden was estimated for the initial phase of care, the period following diagnosis, the last year of life, and the continuing phase. Projected burden was evaluated with varying assumptions about incidence, survival, and costs of care. Estimated costs of care in 2000 in the initial, continuing, and last year of life phases of care were approximately $3.18 billion, $1.68 billion, and $2.63 billion, respectively. By the year 2020 under the 'fixed' current incidence, survival, and cost scenario, projected costs for the initial, continuing, and last year of life phases were $4.75 billion, $2.63 billion, and $4.05 billion. Under the current trends scenario (decreasing incidence, improving survival, and increasing costs), costs were $5.19 billion, $3.57 billion, and $5.27 billion. By the year 2020, estimated costs of colorectal cancer care among individuals aged 65 and older increased by 53% in the fixed scenario and by 89% in the current trends scenario. The future economic burden of colorectal cancer to the Medicare program and its beneficiaries in the US will be substantial.