Petit Rémy J
INRA, UMR 1202 Biodiversity, Genes & Communities (BIOGECO), 69 route d'Arcachon, F33612 Cestas cedex, France.
Mol Ecol. 2008 Jan;17(2):516-8. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-294X.2007.03589.x. Epub 2007 Oct 23.
Nested clade phylogeographic analysis (NCPA) has become a popular method for reconstructing the history of populations across species ranges. Ever since its invention in 1995, criticisms have been formulated, but the method, which has been regularly updated, continues to attract investigators. Molecular Ecology has published a large fraction of the literature on the topic--both pro and con. A recent study by Panchal and Beaumont (2007) finally allows a precise evaluation of the method by developing software that automates the somewhat complicated NCPA procedure. Using simulations of random-mating populations, Panchal and Beaumont find a high frequency of false-positives with their automated NCPA procedure (over 75%). These findings, which echo and amplify earlier warnings, appear serious enough to suggest to researchers to await further evaluation of the method. Although no other all-encompassing method such as the NCAP currently exists to evaluate phylogeographic data sets, researchers have many alternative methods to test ever more refined hypotheses.
嵌套分支系统发育地理学分析（NCPA）已成为一种用于重建物种分布范围内种群历史的流行方法。自1995年发明以来，该方法一直受到批评，但经过定期更新，它仍然吸引着研究人员。《分子生态学》发表了大量关于该主题的文献——既有支持的也有反对的。Panchal和Beaumont（2007年）最近的一项研究通过开发一款能自动执行有些复杂的NCPA程序的软件，最终得以对该方法进行精确评估。通过对随机交配种群的模拟，Panchal和Beaumont发现他们的自动化NCPA程序存在高频率的假阳性结果（超过75%）。这些结果呼应并放大了早期的警告，似乎严重到足以建议研究人员等待对该方法进行进一步评估。尽管目前不存在像NCPA这样能全面评估系统发育地理数据集的其他方法，但研究人员有许多替代方法来检验越来越精细的假设。
