H指数具有预测能力吗?

Does the H index have predictive power?

作者信息

Hirsch J E

机构信息

Department of Physics, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093-0319, USA.

出版信息

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2007 Dec 4;104(49):19193-8. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0707962104. Epub 2007 Nov 26.

Abstract

Bibliometric measures of individual scientific achievement are of particular interest if they can be used to predict future achievement. Here we report results of an empirical study of the predictive power of the h index compared with other indicators. Our findings indicate that the h index is better than other indicators considered (total citation count, citations per paper, and total paper count) in predicting future scientific achievement. We discuss reasons for the superiority of the h index.

摘要

如果能够利用文献计量学方法衡量个人科研成就来预测未来成就,那么这些方法就会特别受关注。在此,我们报告一项实证研究的结果,该研究比较了h指数与其他指标的预测能力。我们的研究结果表明,在预测未来科研成就方面,h指数比其他所考虑的指标(总被引频次、每篇论文被引频次和论文总数)表现更好。我们讨论了h指数优越性的原因。

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