Studer Lea H, Aylwin A Scott
University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
Int J Law Psychiatry. 2008 Jan-Feb;31(1):60-5. doi: 10.1016/j.ijlp.2007.11.009. Epub 2008 Jan 14.
The use of actuarial instruments to predict sex offender recidivism has gained increasing credibility in recent years. This paper is one in a series examining the impact of dynamic inpatient group therapy upon the predictive influence of static risk factors on recidivism among adult sex offenders. Successful completion of the Phoenix Program (Alberta Hospital Edmonton) has been shown to ameliorate the influence of static risk factors on sexual offense recidivism. Many studies have reported that sex offenders who have male victims are more likely to re-offend than those who do not have male victims. A sample of N=513 convicted adult male sex offenders was examined regarding the relationship between the static risk factor of having male victims, subsequent re-offense, and treatment impact. Interestingly, ever having had a male victim did not significantly correlate with sex offense recidivism, for either treatment completers, non-completers, or the combined group. However, having exclusively male victims was correlated with sex offense recidivism, but only among non-completers of the program (r=.155; p=.017). Analysis of a subset of 422 child molesters yielded a similar result, in that having male victims exclusively was only associated with sex offense recidivism among treatment non-completers (r=.189, p=.009).
近年来,使用精算工具预测性犯罪者再犯的可信度越来越高。本文是一系列研究中的一篇,探讨动态住院团体治疗对成年性犯罪者再犯中静态风险因素预测影响的作用。已证明成功完成凤凰城项目(埃德蒙顿艾伯塔医院)可减轻静态风险因素对性犯罪再犯的影响。许多研究报告称,有男性受害者的性犯罪者比没有男性受害者的性犯罪者更有可能再次犯罪。对N = 513名被定罪的成年男性性犯罪者样本进行了研究,考察有男性受害者这一静态风险因素、随后的再次犯罪以及治疗影响之间的关系。有趣的是,无论是治疗完成者、未完成者还是综合组,曾经有过男性受害者与性犯罪再犯均无显著相关性。然而,仅有男性受害者与性犯罪再犯相关,但仅在项目未完成者中如此(r = 0.155;p = 0.017)。对422名儿童性骚扰者的一个子集进行分析得出了类似结果,即仅有男性受害者仅与治疗未完成者的性犯罪再犯相关(r = 0.189,p = 0.009)。