Erke Alena
Institute of Transport Economics, Department of passenger transport, Grensesvingen 7, 0602 Oslo, Norway.
Accid Anal Prev. 2008 Jan;40(1):167-73. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2007.05.002. Epub 2007 Jun 6.
This study summarizes evidence from empirical studies on the effects of electronic stability control (ESC) on accidents in a meta-analysis. Large reductions of single vehicle accidents have been found (-49%; 95% confidence interval: [-55%; -42%]), and smaller but still significant reductions of head-on collisions (-13%; 95% confidence interval: [-17%; -8%]). Multi-vehicle fatal accidents are also significantly reduced (-32%; 95% confidence interval: [-43%; -20%]). The effects can be explained with the potential of ESC to improve driving dynamics and to reduce the probability of loss of control. However, there are significant amounts of heterogeneity in the results, especially for single vehicle accidents, and a sensitivity analysis shows that the results for single vehicle accidents are likely to be affected by publication bias. The results for single vehicle accidents are in excess of what might be expected based on studies that have estimated the total amount of accidents that may be affected by ESC. Consequently, the proportions of accidents that can be avoided by ESC is assumed to be somewhat smaller than suggested by most empirical studies. Properties of the vehicles, time trends, and driver behaviour may have contributed to the large empirical effects.
本研究在一项荟萃分析中总结了关于电子稳定控制系统（ESC）对事故影响的实证研究证据。已发现单车事故大幅减少（-49%；95%置信区间：[-55%；-42%]），正面碰撞事故减少幅度较小但仍显著（-13%；95%置信区间：[-17%；-8%]）。多车致命事故也显著减少（-32%；95%置信区间：[-43%；-20%]）。这些影响可以用ESC改善驾驶动态和降低失控概率的潜力来解释。然而，结果存在大量异质性，特别是单车事故，敏感性分析表明单车事故的结果可能受到发表偏倚的影响。单车事故的结果超过了基于估计可能受ESC影响的事故总量的研究所预期的结果。因此，ESC可避免的事故比例被认为略小于大多数实证研究所表明的比例。车辆特性、时间趋势和驾驶员行为可能导致了较大的实证效果。
