Reece John F, Chawla Sunil K, Hiby Elly F, Hiby Lex R
Help in Suffering, Maharani Farm, Durgapura, Jaipur 302018 Rajasthan, India.
BMC Vet Res. 2008 Jan 31;4:6. doi: 10.1186/1746-6148-4-6.
Estimates of demographic parameters, such as age-specific survival and fecundity, age at first pregnancy and litter size, are required for roaming dogs (i.e. dogs that are neither confined nor restricted) to assess the likely effect of proposed methods of population control. Data resulting from individual identification of dogs spayed as part of an Animal Birth Control (ABC) programme in Jaipur, India, are used to derive such parameters for the roaming dog population of that city.
The percentage of females becoming pregnant in any given year was estimated by inspection of over 25,000 females caught for spaying from 1995 to 2006. The point estimate is 47.5% with a 95% confidence interval from 44% to 51%. Adult annual survival of spayed females was estimated by recapture of 62 spayed females from 2002 to 2006. The point estimate is 0.70 (95% confidence interval from 0.62 to 0.78), corresponding to an expected total lifespan of 3.8 years for a spayed female at one year old.
Recording the pregnancy status of dogs collected for spaying and individual marking of dogs released following spaying can provide estimates of some of the demographic parameters essential for predicting the future effectiveness of an ABC programme. Further, we suggest that recording the number and location of spayed and unspayed dogs encountered by the catching teams could be the most effective way to monitor the size and composition of the roaming dog population.
对于流浪狗(即既未被圈养也未受限制的狗)而言,需要估计特定年龄的生存率和繁殖力、首次怀孕年龄及窝仔数等人口统计学参数,以评估拟议的种群控制方法可能产生的影响。印度斋浦尔一项动物节育(ABC)计划中对绝育狗进行个体识别所得到的数据,被用于推导该城市流浪狗种群的此类参数。
通过检查1995年至2006年期间超过25000只被捕获用于绝育的雌性狗,估计了任何给定年份怀孕的雌性狗的百分比。点估计值为47.5%,95%置信区间为44%至51%。通过2002年至2006年期间对62只绝育雌性狗的重新捕获,估计了绝育雌性狗的成年年生存率。点估计值为0.70(95%置信区间为0.62至0.78),这相当于一只一岁绝育雌性狗的预期总寿命为3.8年。
记录用于绝育的狗的怀孕状况以及绝育后放归狗的个体标记,可以提供一些预测ABC计划未来有效性所需的人口统计学参数的估计值。此外,我们建议记录捕捉团队遇到的绝育和未绝育狗的数量及位置,这可能是监测流浪狗种群规模和组成的最有效方法。