Fricker Ronald D, Hegler Benjamin L, Dunfee David A
Operations Research Department, Naval Postgraduate School, 1411 Cunningham Road, Monterey, CA 93943, USA.
Stat Med. 2008 Jul 30;27(17):3407-29. doi: 10.1002/sim.3197.
This paper compares the performance of three detection methods, entitled C1, C2, and C3, that are implemented in the early aberration reporting system (EARS) and other syndromic surveillance systems versus the CUSUM applied to model-based prediction errors. The cumulative sum (CUSUM) performed significantly better than the EARS' methods across all of the scenarios we evaluated. These scenarios consisted of various combinations of large and small background disease incidence rates, seasonal cycles from large to small (as well as no cycle), daily effects, and various types and levels of random daily variation. This leads us to recommend replacing the C1, C2, and C3 methods in existing syndromic surveillance systems with an appropriately implemented CUSUM method.
本文比较了早期异常报告系统(EARS)和其他症状监测系统中实施的三种检测方法C1、C2和C3与应用于基于模型的预测误差的累积和(CUSUM)的性能。在我们评估的所有情景中,累积和(CUSUM)的表现明显优于EARS的方法。这些情景包括大背景疾病发病率和小背景疾病发病率的各种组合、从大到小的季节性周期(以及无周期)、每日效应以及各种类型和水平的每日随机变化。这使我们建议用适当实施的CUSUM方法取代现有症状监测系统中的C1、C2和C3方法。