Larrieu Sophie, Carcaillon Laure, Lefranc Agnès, Helmer Catherine, Dartigues Jean-François, Tavernier Béatrice, Ledrans Martine, Filleul Laurent
Cellule Interrégionale d'Epidémiologie Aquitaine, Espace Rodesse, Bordeaux Cedex, France.
Eur J Epidemiol. 2008;23(4):295-302. doi: 10.1007/s10654-008-9229-3. Epub 2008 Feb 13.
France was affected in early August 2003 by a heat wave with an exceptional health impact. Many studies on mortality were conducted but few data are available on morbidity. The objectives of this study were to describe the impact of the 2003 heat wave in the general population of elderly people and to determine individual factors associated with morbidity.
A cross-sectional study nested in two prospective cohorts, the PAQUID and the Three-City (3C) studies, was performed. The sample included 2295 subjects from the general population, aged 67 and over who were interviewed by a phone questionnaire to complete data available in the database of the two cohorts. Two variables assessing morbidity (felt by the person and objectively observed) were created. Relationship between morbidity and individual factors were explored in univariate analyses; then multiple logistic regressions were conducted.
During the heat wave, 8.8% of the subjects felt a deterioration of their health, and 7.8% declared an objective morbid outcome. In the univariate analyses, many factors were associated with morbidity. After multiple adjustments, few associations were still observed but some factors were associated with a decreased risk (presence of a bathroom, dressing lighter than usually) or an increased risk (stopping usual activities, presence of chronic diseases).
This study showed a non-negligible impact of the 2003 heat wave in term of felt and objective morbidity. Several individual factors were shown to be associated with morbidity and should be taken into account for the elaboration of prevention plans.
2003年8月初，法国遭受了一场热浪袭击，对健康产生了异常影响。针对死亡率开展了许多研究，但关于发病率的数据却很少。本研究的目的是描述2003年热浪对老年人群体的影响，并确定与发病率相关的个体因素。
在两个前瞻性队列研究——PAQUID研究和三城市（3C）研究中进行了一项横断面研究。样本包括来自普通人群的2295名67岁及以上的受试者，通过电话问卷对他们进行访谈，以完善两个队列数据库中的现有数据。创建了两个评估发病率的变量（个人感觉和客观观察到的）。在单因素分析中探讨了发病率与个体因素之间的关系；然后进行了多因素逻辑回归分析。
在热浪期间，8.8%的受试者感觉自己的健康状况恶化，7.8%的受试者报告有客观的发病结果。在单因素分析中，许多因素与发病率相关。经过多次调整后，仍观察到少数关联，但一些因素与风险降低（有浴室、穿着比平时轻便）或风险增加（停止日常活动、患有慢性病）有关。
本研究表明，2003年热浪在个人感觉和客观发病方面产生了不可忽视的影响。有几个个体因素被证明与发病率相关，在制定预防计划时应予以考虑。
