Pearman Peter B, Guisan Antoine, Broennimann Olivier, Randin Christophe F
University of Lausanne, Department of Ecology and Evolution, Lausanne, Switzerland.
Trends Ecol Evol. 2008 Mar;23(3):149-58. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2007.11.005.
Niche conservatism, the tendency of a species niche to remain unchanged over time, is often assumed when discussing, explaining or predicting biogeographical patterns. Unfortunately, there has been no basis for predicting niche dynamics over relevant timescales, from tens to a few hundreds of years. The recent application of species distribution models (SDMs) and phylogenetic methods to analysis of niche characteristics has provided insight to niche dynamics. Niche shifts and conservatism have both occurred within the last 100 years, with recent speciation events, and deep within clades of species. There is increasing evidence that coordinated application of these methods can help to identify species which likely fulfill one key assumption in the predictive application of SDMs: an unchanging niche. This will improve confidence in SDM-based predictions of the impacts of climate change and species invasions on species distributions and biodiversity.
生态位保守性，即一个物种的生态位随时间保持不变的趋势，在讨论、解释或预测生物地理模式时常常被假定。不幸的是，在从数十年到数百年的相关时间尺度上，一直没有预测生态位动态的依据。物种分布模型（SDMs）和系统发育方法最近在生态位特征分析中的应用为生态位动态提供了见解。在过去100年内，随着近期物种形成事件以及在物种进化枝的深处，都出现了生态位转移和保守性。越来越多的证据表明，这些方法的协同应用有助于识别可能满足物种分布模型预测应用中一个关键假设的物种：生态位不变。这将提高基于物种分布模型的预测的可信度，这些预测涉及气候变化和物种入侵对物种分布和生物多样性的影响。
