Bell M G H, Kanturska U, Schmöcker J-D, Fonzone A
Centre for Transport Studies, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2008 Jun 13;366(1872):1893-906. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2008.0019.
The reliability of road networks depends directly on their vulnerability to disruptive incidents, ranging in severity from minor disruptions to terrorist attacks. This paper presents a game theoretic approach to the analysis of road network vulnerability. The approach posits predefined disruption, attack or failure scenarios and then considers how to use the road network so as to minimize the maximum expected loss in the event of one of these scenarios coming to fruition. A mixed route strategy is adopted, meaning that the use of the road network is determined by the worst scenario probabilities. This is equivalent to risk-averse route choice. A solution algorithm suitable for use with standard traffic assignment software is presented, thereby enabling the use of electronic road navigation networks. A variant of this algorithm suitable for risk-averse assignment is developed. A numerical example relating to the central London road network is presented. The results highlight points of vulnerability in the road network. Applications of this form of network vulnerability analysis together with improved solution methods are discussed.
道路网络的可靠性直接取决于其对破坏性事件的脆弱性，这些事件的严重程度从轻微干扰到恐怖袭击不等。本文提出了一种博弈论方法来分析道路网络的脆弱性。该方法设定了预定义的干扰、攻击或故障场景，然后考虑如何使用道路网络，以便在这些场景之一成为现实时将最大预期损失降至最低。采用了混合路线策略，这意味着道路网络的使用由最坏情况概率决定。这等同于规避风险的路线选择。提出了一种适用于标准交通分配软件的求解算法，从而能够使用电子道路导航网络。开发了一种适用于规避风险分配的该算法变体。给出了一个与伦敦市中心道路网络相关的数值示例。结果突出了道路网络中的脆弱点。讨论了这种形式的网络脆弱性分析及其改进求解方法的应用。
