Nocera Fabrizio, Gamal Yahya, Wang Chenbo, Cremen Gemma
Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, University College London, London, UK.
Urban Big Data Centre, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
Commun Eng. 2025 Sep 2;4(1):161. doi: 10.1038/s44172-025-00494-3.
Conventional natural-hazard risk-modeling approaches do not consider possible unintended negative socioeconomic consequences of designing infrastructure expansions in a risk-informed way. Here, we propose a people-centered decision-making framework for urban infrastructure development that addresses this issue. The framework integrates a bespoke agent-based model that accounts for implications of variations in infrastructure expansion on dynamic land values and related residential location decision making. This means that the model captures macro-scale socioeconomic effects resulting from infrastructure development that are not explicitly related to natural-hazard events. The underlying algorithm balances these considerations with the successful operation of the infrastructure itself and the potential infrastructure performance losses that accompany a natural-hazard event. We demonstrate the framework by optimizing the expansion of transportation in a virtual urban testbed that imitates a typical expanding urban context in the Global South. This work can be used to guide inclusive risk-sensitive infrastructure planning in hazardous, rapidly growing cities.
传统的自然灾害风险建模方法没有考虑以风险知情方式设计基础设施扩建可能产生的意外负面社会经济后果。在此，我们提出了一个以人民为中心的城市基础设施发展决策框架来解决这一问题。该框架整合了一个定制的基于主体的模型，该模型考虑了基础设施扩建变化对动态土地价值和相关居住选址决策的影响。这意味着该模型捕捉到了基础设施发展产生的宏观社会经济效应，而这些效应与自然灾害事件并无直接关联。其底层算法在这些考量与基础设施自身的成功运营以及自然灾害事件伴随的潜在基础设施性能损失之间取得平衡。我们通过在一个虚拟城市试验平台上优化交通扩建来展示该框架，该试验平台模拟了全球南方典型的扩张型城市环境。这项工作可用于指导危险且快速发展城市中的包容性风险敏感型基础设施规划。
