Rodgers Gregory B
Directorate for Economic Analysis, U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission, 4330 East West Highway, Bethesda, MD 20814, USA.
Accid Anal Prev. 2008 Mar;40(2):725-32. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2007.09.021. Epub 2007 Oct 8.
The purpose of this article is to determine and quantify the factors associated with the all-terrain vehicle (ATV) mortality rate in the United States, based on an analysis of state-level data. From 1990 through 1999, there were about 2400 reported deaths in the U.S. involving ATVs. The population-based mortality rate during this time period amounted to about 0.84 deaths per million persons per year, but varied considerably among the 50 states-ranging from a low of 0.09 deaths per million person-years in Rhode Island to a high of 6.33 deaths per million person-years in West Virginia. This variation provides an opportunity for quantifying some of the key factors associated with the ATV mortality risk. The analysis was conducted in a two-stage regression process, with the state mortality rates estimated in the second stage with a negative binomial regression model. The results indicate that the ATV mortality rate was systematically related to ATV usage rates (a measure of risk exposure) and a number of the characteristics of the potential rider pool. These included: the proportion of the state populations that was male, young, lived in rural areas, was college educated, and non-Hispanic white.
本文的目的是基于对州级数据的分析，确定并量化与美国全地形车（ATV）死亡率相关的因素。从1990年到1999年，美国报告了约2400起涉及全地形车的死亡事件。在此期间，基于人口的死亡率约为每年每百万人0.84例死亡，但在50个州之间差异很大，从罗德岛的每百万人年0.09例死亡的低点到西弗吉尼亚州的每百万人年6.33例死亡的高点。这种差异为量化一些与全地形车死亡风险相关的关键因素提供了机会。该分析在两阶段回归过程中进行，第二阶段使用负二项回归模型估计州死亡率。结果表明，全地形车死亡率与全地形车使用率（风险暴露的一种衡量指标）以及潜在骑手群体的一些特征系统相关。这些特征包括：该州男性、年轻人、农村居民、受过大学教育以及非西班牙裔白人的人口比例。
