Khorasani Zavareh Davoud, Mohammadi Reza, Laflamme Lucie, Naghavi Mohsen, Zarei Abbas, Haglund Bo J A
Division of Social Medicine, Department of Public Health Sciences, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Int J Inj Contr Saf Promot. 2008 Mar;15(1):9-17. doi: 10.1080/17457300701794105.
The study estimates the rate of fatal road traffic injuries (RTIs) by population and road-users group in one Iranian province. The capture - recapture method was employed, using both the death register and the forensic medicine register over one year. They recorded totals of 669 and 665 RTIs respectively, giving a non-overlapping number of 897 cases. An estimate of 1018 fatalities occurred, at rates of 34 per 100,000 of the population for all road users aggregated, 10 per 100,000 for pedestrians and 25 per 100,000 for other road users. Coverage was somewhat better for victims less than 15 years of age, and also for males. The method showed 121 under-reported cases in both sources; however, it can help Iranian policy-makers to produce a good estimation of fatal RTIs number each year, when following up current RTIs-prevention programmes. Yet, given that each registry operates separately, optimum coverage will only be obtained when both sources are integrated and work together.
该研究估算了伊朗一个省份按人口和道路使用者群体划分的致命道路交通伤害（RTIs）发生率。采用捕获-再捕获法，使用了一年期间的死亡登记册和法医学登记册。他们分别记录了669起和665起道路交通伤害事件，得出不重叠的病例数为897例。估计发生了1018起死亡事故，所有道路使用者的综合发生率为每10万人34起，行人每10万人10起，其他道路使用者每10万人25起。15岁以下受害者以及男性的覆盖情况稍好一些。该方法显示两个来源均有121例报告不足的病例；然而，在跟进当前的道路交通伤害预防项目时，它可以帮助伊朗政策制定者对每年的致命道路交通伤害数量做出良好估计。不过，鉴于每个登记册独立运作，只有当两个来源整合并协同工作时，才能获得最佳覆盖范围。
