Amoros Emmanuelle, Martin Jean-Louis, Laumon Bernard
Epidemiological Research and Surveillance Unit in Transport, Occupation and Environment UMRESTTE, French National Institute for Transport and Safety Research INRETS, Bron, F-69500, France.
Accid Anal Prev. 2007 May;39(3):483-90. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2006.09.006. Epub 2006 Nov 13.
Non-fatal road casualties are under-reported, with official figures coming from the police. In the French Rhône county, a road trauma registry constitutes a second source of reporting but its completeness needs to be assessed. We also wish to estimate an incidence rate of non-fatal road casualties that is corrected for under-count.
Having two sources of reporting available, we can apply the capture-recapture method under certain conditions. To take into account different reporting probabilities among casualties, the capture-recapture analysis is stratified according to injury severity (New Injury Severity Score=NISS), road user type and human third party. To evaluate the sensitivity of the capture-recapture estimate on the number of matched casualties between the police file and the registry, three scenarios of record-linkage are considered.
For serious (NISS 9+) non-fatal road casualties, the police ascertainment rate is at most 57%, the registry ascertainment rate is at most 87%, and the aggregate ascertainment rate is at most 95%. The ascertainment-corrected incidence rate for serious (NISS 9+) non-fatal road casualties is at least 65 per 100,000.
The degree of completeness of the registry for serious casualties is rather high, though not satisfactory.
非致命道路伤亡事件报告不足，官方数据来自警方。在法国罗纳省，道路创伤登记处构成了另一个报告来源，但需要评估其完整性。我们还希望估算经漏报校正后的非致命道路伤亡发生率。
有两个可用的报告来源，在某些条件下我们可以应用捕获再捕获法。为了考虑伤亡者之间不同的报告概率，捕获再捕获分析按损伤严重程度（新损伤严重程度评分=NISS）、道路使用者类型和第三方人员进行分层。为了评估捕获再捕获估计对警方档案与登记处之间匹配伤亡者数量的敏感性，考虑了三种记录链接方案。
对于严重（NISS 9+）非致命道路伤亡事件，警方的查明率最高为57%，登记处的查明率最高为87%，总体查明率最高为95%。严重（NISS 9+）非致命道路伤亡事件的经查明校正发生率至少为每10万人65例。
严重伤亡登记处的完整性程度相当高，尽管并不令人满意。
