2000年国家卫生目标：健康促进与疾病预防对人口结构的影响
National health objectives for the year 2000: the demographic impact of health promotion and disease prevention.
作者信息
Stoto M A, Durch J S
机构信息
Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC 20418.
出版信息
Am J Public Health. 1991 Nov;81(11):1456-65. doi: 10.2105/ajph.81.11.1456.
BACKGROUND
The national objectives in Healthy People 2000, drafted by health professionals aware of currently available public health interventions, represent a wealth of information about near-term future mortality and morbidity.
METHODS
Life table methods were used to calculate the impact of projected changes in mortality and activity limitation rates on life expectancy and expected disability years.
RESULTS
Meeting the mortality objectives would increase life expectancy at birth by 1.5 to 2.1 years, raising life expectancy to 76.6 to 77.2 years. In addition, meeting the target for disability from chronic conditions would increase the number of years of life without activity limitations from 66.8 years to 69.3-69.7 years. If the targets for coronary heart disease and unintentional injury were changed to reflect recent trends, a greater improvement in life expectancy at birth would be achieved: from 1.8 to 2.7 years to 76.9 to 77.8 years.
CONCLUSION
Meeting the targets would have an important demographic impact. Including changes in the coronary heart disease and injuries targets, life expectancy in the year 2000 would be above the middle of the ranges used in current Census Bureau projections.
背景
由了解当前可用公共卫生干预措施的健康专业人员起草的《2000年健康人群》国家目标，代表了关于近期未来死亡率和发病率的丰富信息。
方法
采用生命表方法来计算预计的死亡率和活动受限率变化对预期寿命和预期残疾年数的影响。
结果
实现死亡率目标将使出生时的预期寿命增加1.5至2.1岁，使预期寿命提高到76.6至77.2岁。此外，实现慢性病残疾目标将使无活动受限的生命年数从66.8岁增加到69.3至69.7岁。如果将冠心病和意外伤害目标调整以反映近期趋势，出生时预期寿命将取得更大改善：从1.8至2.7岁提高到76.9至77.8岁。
结论
实现这些目标将产生重要的人口统计学影响。包括冠心病和伤害目标的变化在内，2000年的预期寿命将高于美国人口普查局当前预测所使用范围的中间值。
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