Wade A H
Office of the Actuary, Social Security Administration.
Soc Secur Bull. 1988 Feb;51(2):3-30.
The following article, first published as Actuarial Study No. 99, describes the population projections that underlie the long-range cost estimates for the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) program, which are included in the 1987 Report of the OASDI Board of Trustees. The projections start from a recent estimate of the population in the Social Security Area by age, sex, and martial status and from an estimate of existing marriages by age of husband and age of wife. Three separate projections, denoted Alternatives I, II, and III, are developed by analyzing historical data and making three different sets of assumptions about future net immigration, birth rates, and death rates.
以下文章首次发表时为精算研究第99号，描述了构成老年、遗属和残疾保险（OASDI）计划长期成本估计基础的人口预测，这些预测包含在OASDI董事会1987年的报告中。这些预测始于最近按年龄、性别和婚姻状况对社会保障区域内人口的估计，以及按丈夫年龄和妻子年龄对现有婚姻的估计。通过分析历史数据并对未来净移民、出生率和死亡率做出三组不同假设，得出了三个单独的预测，分别称为方案一、方案二和方案三。
