Nelson David E, Mowery Paul, Asman Kat, Pederson Linda L, O'Malley Patrick M, Malarcher Ann, Maibach Edward W, Pechacek Terry F
National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Emerging Investigation and Analytic Methods Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 4770 Buford Highway, NE, Mailstop K-67, Atlanta, GA 30341-3717, USA.
Am J Public Health. 2008 May;98(5):905-15. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2007.115931. Epub 2008 Apr 1.
We sought to describe long-term adolescent and young adult smoking trends and patterns.
We analyzed adolescent data from Monitoring the Future, 1976 to 2005, and young adult (aged 18-24 years) data from the National Health Interview Survey, 1974 to 2005, overall and in subpopulations to identify trends in current cigarette smoking prevalence.
Five metapatterns emerged: we found (1) a large increase and subsequent decrease in overall smoking over the past 15 years, (2) a steep decline in smoking among Blacks through the early 1990s, (3) a gender gap reversal among older adolescents and young adults who smoked over the past 15 years, (4) similar trends in smoking for most subgroups since the early 1990s, and (5) a large decline in smoking among young adults with less than a high school education.
Long-term patterns for adolescent and young adult cigarette smoking were decidedly nonlinear, and we found evidence of a cohort effect among young adults. Continued strong efforts and a long-term societal commitment to tobacco use prevention are needed, given the unprecedented declines in smoking among most subpopulations since the mid- to late 1990s.
我们试图描述青少年及青年成人吸烟的长期趋势和模式。
我们分析了1976年至2005年“未来监测”项目中的青少年数据，以及1974年至2005年美国国家健康访谈调查中的青年成人（年龄在18 - 24岁之间）数据，整体及按亚人群进行分析，以确定当前吸烟流行率的趋势。
出现了五种总体模式：我们发现（1）在过去15年中，总体吸烟率先大幅上升后下降；（2）到20世纪90年代初，黑人吸烟率急剧下降；（3）在过去15年中，吸烟的大龄青少年和青年成人中性别差距出现逆转；（4）自20世纪90年代初以来，大多数亚组的吸烟趋势相似；（5）受教育程度低于高中的青年成人吸烟率大幅下降。
青少年及青年成人吸烟的长期模式明显是非线性的，并且我们发现了青年成人中存在队列效应的证据。鉴于自20世纪90年代中后期以来，大多数亚人群吸烟率出现前所未有的下降，仍需要持续做出强有力的努力以及社会对预防烟草使用做出长期承诺。
