Koopmans Petra C, Roelen Corné A M, Groothoff Johan W
Department of Social Medicine, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands.
Occup Med (Lond). 2008 Jun;58(4):268-74. doi: 10.1093/occmed/kqn040. Epub 2008 Apr 4.
Prior absence is an important predictor for sickness absence, but little is known about the recurrence among frequent and/or long-term absentees, over a longer period of time.
To monitor sickness absence among frequent and long-term absentees in order to investigate their risk of recurrent absence.
Longitudinal cohort study in employees working in three large Dutch postal and telecommunications companies. In the first year of study, we distinguished employees who were absent four times or more (frequent absence), employees who were absent for >or=6 weeks (long-term absence), combined frequent and long-term absence and a reference population. The absence rates in these groups were followed-up for 4 years.
The study population (n = 53,990) comprised 4126 frequent absentees, 3585 long-term absentees, 979 combined frequent and long-term absentees and a reference population (n = 45,300). Frequent absentees had a higher risk of recurrent frequent absence when compared to the reference population, with rate ratios (RR) amounting to 4.9 [95% confidence interval (CI) 4.7-5.1] in men and 3.2 (95% CI 3.0-3.4) in women. They also had a higher risk of developing long-term absence: RR = 1.9 (95% CI 1.8-2.0) in men and 1.5 (95% CI 1.4-1.6) in women. Long-term absentees had high risk of recurrence: RR = 1.9 (95% CI 1.8-2.0) in men and RR = 1.4 (95% CI 1.3-1.5) in women.
Employees with prior frequent and/or long-term absence were at risk of recurrent absence. Frequent absence was a prognostic factor predicting future long-term absence.
既往缺勤是病假缺勤的一个重要预测因素，但对于频繁和/或长期缺勤者在较长时间段内的复发情况，我们了解甚少。
监测频繁和长期缺勤者的病假缺勤情况，以调查他们再次缺勤的风险。
对荷兰三家大型邮政和电信公司的员工进行纵向队列研究。在研究的第一年，我们区分出缺勤四次或以上的员工（频繁缺勤）、缺勤六周及以上的员工（长期缺勤）、频繁和长期缺勤兼具的员工以及一个参照人群。对这些组别的缺勤率进行了4年的随访。
研究人群（n = 53,990）包括4126名频繁缺勤者、3585名长期缺勤者、979名频繁和长期缺勤兼具的员工以及一个参照人群（n = 45,300）。与参照人群相比，频繁缺勤者再次频繁缺勤的风险更高，男性的率比（RR）为4.9 [95%置信区间（CI）4.7 - 5.1]，女性为3.2（95% CI 3.0 - 3.4）。他们出现长期缺勤的风险也更高：男性的RR = 1.9（95% CI 1.8 - 2.0），女性为1.5（95% CI 1.4 - 1.6）。长期缺勤者复发风险很高：男性的RR = 1.9（95% CI 1.8 - 2.0），女性的RR = 1.4（95% CI 1.3 - 1.5）。
既往有频繁和/或长期缺勤的员工存在再次缺勤的风险。频繁缺勤是预测未来长期缺勤的一个预后因素。
