Marimuthu P
Department of Biostatistics, National Institute of Mental Health and Neuro Science, Bangalore, India.
Indian J Cancer. 2008 Jan-Mar;45(1):4-7. doi: 10.4103/0019-509x.40639.
Cancer is second largest non-communicable disease and it has a sizable contribution in the total number of deaths. It is important for the public health professionals to understand the dynamics of cancer incidence for future strategies. Therefore, this paper is attempted with the objective of projecting number of cancer incidence for five cities namely, Bangalore, Chennai, Delhi, Bhopal and Mumbai and to estimate the cancer mortality rate for all India for the year 2008.
The data were used from the Indian Council of Medical Research's publication of Population-Based Cancer Registry for the year 1999-2000. The population was calculated from the Census reports of 1991 and 2001. Causes-specific mortality report by the Central Bureau of Health Intelligence was used for estimating cancer mortality for all India. The age-specific rate method is utilized to project number of cancer incidence for the cities of Bangalore, Chennai, Delhi, Bhopal and Mumbai and to estimate cancer mortality in 2000 for all India.
About 26.6% increase is expected in the registered number of cancer cases in these five cities and 52.68% increase is projected for Delhi which would mean highest number of cases in Delhi among these five cities within a span of eight years. And in Mumbai it is expected to have a marginal decline in the number of cases for the year 2008 (around -3.25%). The age adjusted analysis indicates that Mumbai is experiencing the higher incidence rate among the five cities studied herein. It is estimated about 50% cancer mortality is reported from the age group 55 and above years.
癌症是第二大非传染性疾病，在总死亡人数中占相当大的比例。对于公共卫生专业人员来说，了解癌症发病率的动态变化对于制定未来策略很重要。因此，本文旨在预测班加罗尔、钦奈、德里、博帕尔和孟买这五个城市的癌症发病数，并估算2008年全印度的癌症死亡率。
数据来自印度医学研究理事会1999 - 2000年基于人群的癌症登记出版物。人口数据根据1991年和2001年的人口普查报告计算得出。中央卫生情报局的死因特异性死亡率报告用于估算全印度的癌症死亡率。采用年龄别率法预测班加罗尔、钦奈、德里、博帕尔和孟买这几个城市的癌症发病数，并估算2000年全印度的癌症死亡率。
预计这五个城市的癌症登记病例数将增加约26.6%，德里预计将增加52.68%，这意味着在八年内德里将成为这五个城市中病例数最多的城市。而孟买预计2008年的病例数将略有下降（约 -3.25%）。年龄调整分析表明，孟买在所研究的五个城市中发病率较高。据估计，55岁及以上年龄组报告的癌症死亡率约为50%。
