Takiar Ramnath, Nadayil Deenu, Nandakumar A
National Cancer Registry Programme, Indian Council of Medical Research, Bangalore, India.
Asian Pac J Cancer Prev. 2010;11(4):1045-9.
Recently, NCRP (ICMR), Bangalore, has published a report on Time Trends in Cancer Incidence Rates. The report also provided projected numbers of cancer cases at the India country level for selected leadingsites.
In the present paper, an attempt has been made to project cancer cases for India by sex, years and cancer groups.
The incidence data generated by population-based cancer registries (PBCRs) at Bangalore, Barshi, Bhopal, Chennai, Delhi and Mumbai for the years 2001-2005 formed the sources of data. In addition, the latest incidence data of North Eastern Registries for the year 2005-06 were utilized.
The crude incidence rate (CR) was considered suitable for assessing the future load of cancer cases in the country. The Linear Regression method (IARC 1991) was used to assess the time trend and the projection of rates for the periods 2010-2020. For whichever sites where trends were not found to be significant, their latest rates were taken into consideration and assumed to remain same for the period 2010-2020.
The total cancer cases are likely to go up from 979,786 cases in the year 2010 to 1,148,757 cases in the year 2020. The tobacco-related cancers for males are estimated to go up from 190,244 in the year 2010 to 225,241 in the year 2020. Similarly, the female cases will go up from 75,289 in year 2010 to 93,563 in the year 2020. For the year 2010, the number of cancer cases related to digestive system, for both males and females, are estimated to be 107,030 and 86,606 respectively. For, head and neck cancers, the estimates are 122,643 and 53,148 cases, respectively. and for the lymphoid and hematopoietic system (LHS), for the year 2010, are 62,648 for males and 41,591 for females. Gynecological-related cancers are estimated to go up from 153,850 in 2010 to 182,602 in 2020. Among males and females, cancer of breast alone is expected to cross the figure of 100,000 by the year 2020.
最近，位于班加罗尔的印度医学研究理事会国家癌症登记处（NCRP）发表了一份关于癌症发病率时间趋势的报告。该报告还提供了印度全国范围内选定主要部位的癌症病例预测数量。
在本文中，我们尝试按性别、年份和癌症类别对印度的癌症病例进行预测。
班加罗尔、巴尔希、博帕尔、金奈、德里和孟买基于人群的癌症登记处（PBCRs）在2001 - 2005年期间生成的发病率数据构成了数据来源。此外，还使用了东北登记处2005 - 2006年的最新发病率数据。
粗发病率（CR）被认为适合评估该国未来的癌症病例负担。采用线性回归方法（国际癌症研究机构，1991年）评估时间趋势以及2010 - 2020年期间的发病率预测。对于任何未发现趋势显著的部位，采用其最新发病率，并假定在2010 - 2020年期间保持不变。
癌症病例总数可能从2010年的979,786例上升到2020年的1,148,757例。男性与烟草相关的癌症估计将从2010年的190,244例上升到2020年的225,241例。同样，女性病例将从2010年的75,289例上升到2020年的93,563例。2010年，男性和女性消化系统相关癌症病例估计分别为107,030例和86,606例。头颈部癌症的估计病例数分别为122,643例和53,148例。2010年，男性和女性淋巴及造血系统（LHS）相关癌症病例分别为62,648例和41,591例。妇科相关癌症估计将从2010年的153,850例上升到2020年的182,602例。到2020年，仅男性和女性的乳腺癌病例预计都将超过100,000例。
