Brase Gary L
Department of Psychology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, Kansas 66506, USA.
Psychon Bull Rev. 2008 Apr;15(2):284-9. doi: 10.3758/pbr.15.2.284.
The idea that naturally sampled frequencies facilitate performance in statistical reasoning tasks because they are a cognitively privileged representational format has been challenged by findings that similarly structured numbers presented as chances similarly facilitate performance, on the basis of the claim that these are technically single-event probabilities. A crucial opinion, however, is that of the research participants, who possibly interpret chances as de facto frequencies. A series of experiments here indicate that not only is performance improved by clearly presented natural frequencies, rather than chances phrasing, but also that participants who interpreted chances as frequencies, rather than as probabilities, were consistently better at statistical reasoning. This result was found across different variations of information presentation and across different populations.
自然抽样频率有助于统计推理任务表现的观点，是因为它们是一种认知上优越的表征形式，但这一观点受到了如下研究结果的挑战：以概率形式呈现的结构相似的数字同样有助于表现，其依据是这些实际上是单事件概率。然而，一个关键观点是研究参与者的观点，他们可能将概率解释为事实上的频率。这里的一系列实验表明，不仅清晰呈现的自然频率而非概率表述能提高表现，而且将概率解释为频率而非概率的参与者在统计推理方面始终表现得更好。这一结果在信息呈现的不同变体和不同人群中都能发现。
