Mylius Sido D, Hagenaars Thomas J, Lugnér Anna K, Wallinga Jacco
National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Infectious Disease Control, Epidemiology and Surveillance Unit, P.O. Box 1, NL - 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
Vaccine. 2008 Jul 4;26(29-30):3742-9. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2008.04.043. Epub 2008 May 7.
The limited production capacity for vaccines raises the question what the best strategy is for allocating the vaccine to mitigate an influenza pandemic. We developed an age-structured model for spread of an influenza pandemic and validated it against observations from the Asian flu pandemic. Two strategies were evaluated: vaccination can be implemented at the start of the influenza pandemic, or vaccination will be implemented near the peak of it. Our results suggest prioritizing individuals with a high-risk of complications if a vaccine becomes available during a pandemic. If available at the start, vaccinating school children might be considered since this results in slightly lower expected number of deaths.
疫苗有限的生产能力引发了一个问题，即分配疫苗以减轻流感大流行的最佳策略是什么。我们开发了一个用于流感大流行传播的年龄结构模型，并根据亚洲流感大流行的观察结果对其进行了验证。评估了两种策略：在流感大流行开始时实施疫苗接种，或者在接近大流行高峰时实施疫苗接种。我们的结果表明，如果在大流行期间有疫苗可用，应优先考虑有并发症高风险的个体。如果在开始时有疫苗可用，可以考虑为学童接种疫苗，因为这会使预期死亡人数略低。
